上游价格分化，下游地产销售回暖

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料行业整体运行平稳。贵金属直接受益于降息与流动性宽松，价格走强。工业金属受宏观与基本面博弈，其中铜因矿端扰动更具弹性。黑色系与化工品则更多受国内供需结构影响，短期缺乏明确方向。当期美联储降息落地，宏观环境影响加剧，请持续关注不同商品走势的分化情况。 中游：本周中游制造业整体运行呈现分化态势，整体开工率处于低位。具体来看，钢铁行业出现边际改善，建筑钢材生产企业复产有所增加；但铝加工行业受需求疲软和高原材料价格压制，龙头企业开工率下降。第十八届中国工业论坛本周召开，聚焦智能制造、绿色转型与产业融合，为制造业发展指明方向。 下游：本周下游消费行业政策支持加强。政策层面，商务部等三部门联合印发通知，通过加大消费信贷支持等11项措施更大力度提振消费。企业动态上，贵州茅台传出控量政策，导致其主力产品市场价格短期内跳涨。 细分行业 大农业：本期棉花价格小幅震荡，棕榈油和玉米价格持续回落；苹果库存近期小幅回落。 能源：本期国际原油与液化天然气价格大幅回落。 采矿业：本期有色价格方面镍回升，锌回落。黑色价格方面焦煤价格回升，螺纹热卷价格近期持稳；有色库存方面铅和铜小幅回升，黑色库存方面螺纹和纯碱小幅回落。 化工：本期聚乙烯、苯乙烯价格回落，PTA和尿素价格小幅回升；尿素库存回落、纯苯库存回升。 基建：本期水泥和混凝土价格小幅回升；混凝土产能利用率回落。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，上海、杭州、南京、西安销售较上期有所回升。深圳商品房销售价格大幅度回升。 物流运输：本周国际航班班次小幅回升，国内航班班次继续回落。美西航线指数小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：三大产业用电量................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业PPI同比..............................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织服饰市场景气指数....................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政营业数据：快递业务量............................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差................................