青木科技未涉及泡泡玛特涉事抖音直播间潮玩拓品渠道外延助力代运营成长

(002607.SZ) 3Q25 results missed; Continued revenue contraction with tight balance sheet; Stay Sell SELL Timothy Zhao+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ronald Keung, CFA+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. O,cn Educationreported weaker-than-expected 3Q25 results onOct 30.Revenuedropped -23% yoy/-13% qoq to Rmb502mn (36%below GSe).Net protdropped -42% yoy to Rmb30mn (76% belowGSe) with implied 6.0% NPM (-2pp yoy).Contract liabilitiesdeclined -32% yoy/-3% qoq to Rmb1.9bn in 3Q25. The companysaw tight balance sheet with record-low cash ratio at 2%. Eunice Liu+852-2978-7472|eunice.liu@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Key Data Market cap: Rmb16.7bn / $2.3bnEnterprise value: Rmb17.0bn / $2.4bn3m ADTV: Rmb578.7mn / $81.0mnChinaChina Internet VerticalsM&A Rank: 3Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No Industry wise, the applicants for National Civil Servant Exam 2026grew+9% yoyto 3.7mn as the age limit has been relaxed formasters/doctoral graduates, while the planned admissionheadcount dropped-4% yoyto 38.1k, implying increasinglyfiercecompetition. However, we see the company remains under pressure against thebackdrop of reduced competitiveness vs. peers and the industryde-consolidation trend which is likely to sustain in the near term dueto rising small players and weaker consumer spending. Forecast changes and valuation:we cut 2025E-27E revenueforecasts by -11% on slower-than-expected revenue recovery dueto market share loss, and cut our 2025E-27E net profit forecasts by-7% to -8%. Our 12m target price is lowered toRmb1.35(vs.Rmb1.40 prior), based on a 15x target P/E applied to 2026E/2027Eaverage EPS (unchanged). StaySell. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that thefirm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg ACcertification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as researchanalysts with FINRA in the U.S. Key highlights in charts Source: Company data Source: Company data Offcnfinancials vs. industry peers Huatufinancials (3Q25) Source: Company data Source: Company data Source: National Civil Service Administration Investment Thesis - Offcn Education Technology Offcn Education is one of the leading players in China’s public service admission trainingindustry in terms of revenue. While we believe the leading admission training companiesshould benefit from a resilient and rising demand for public service system jobs over themid term, we remain cautious on Offcn considering the relatively low visibility ofnear-term revenue recovery following its high-refund product adjustment and highercompetition from peers. We think current valuation has already priced in a positiveoutlook for a revenue/profit recovery. We are Sell rated on Offcn. Price Target Risks and Methodology - Offcn Education Technology Our 12m TP of Rmb1.35 is based on a 15x target P/E on 2026E/2027E avg EPS. Keyupside risks: stronger business inflection in the near term; faster-than-expectedapplication growth; better-than-expected expansion of vocational skills trainingbusiness; less intensive industry competition providing ASP/margin upside. Disclosure Appendix Reg AC I, Timothy Zhao, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company orcompanies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this report. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division. GS Factor ProfileThe Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our universe of rated stocks) and its sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth,Financial Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. Thenormalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into percentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric mayvary depending on thefiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows: Growthis based on a stock’s forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (forfinancial stocks, only EPS and sales growth), with ahigher percentile indicating a higher growth company.Financial Returnsis based on a stock’s forward-looking ROE,