艾昆纬-Semagulide LOE在印度_-一个需要新剧本的难得机会

ASIT SABAT, Senior Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIADHIRAJ MENDIRATTA, Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIANIMITT DESAI, Associate Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIA Table of contents Introduction1India’s role in shaping the global anti-obesity opportunity2Why Semaglutide’s LOE in India may reshape both IPM and the global obesitymarket2Semaglutide’s LOE in India: Historical trends vs. emerging paradigms3Historical LOE playbook: common themes3Semaglutide’s LOE in India: A distinct departure from historical norms4Estimating the total marketopportunity11Strategic imperatives for generics players13Strategic imperatives forinnovators14Key factors that are likely to play in favor of the innovators14Key challenges the innovators need tonavigate15Conclusion: India’s Semaglutide LOE — A strategic blueprint for global obesity care16For innovators16For generics players16For the global obesity ecosystem16Appendix17References19About the authors21 awareness and evolving diagnostic frameworks,creates a strategic white space, one that demands Introduction Obesity is no longer a marginal health issue, itis a global epidemic with systemic implicationsacross cardiometabolic health, mental well-being,and healthcare economics. By 2050, nearly two- This paper draws on IQVIA’s global and India-specific research to address five critical questions •Why India will be a critical market for the global anti- •Will semaglutide’s LOE in India follow historicalpatterns of other LoEs, or will it redefine them? •What is the overall opportunity size? India is at the center of this transformation. Withover 150M individuals above the BMI threshold forpharmacotherapy and a rapidly growing self- paysegment, India is not just a large market, it is a •What are the strategic imperatives for •What are the strategic imperatives for innovators? Each section of this paper is structured to explorethese questions in depth, offering insights intoemerging patient profiles, therapy phase dynamics,patient-led demand, pricing and supply constraints, This paper contends that semaglutide’s LOE in Indiais unlikely to follow the traditional generics playbook.The market is still being shaped, patient journeys are 3.Scalable learnings for global self-pay markets India’s role in shapingthe global anti-obesity India’s market dynamics mirror those of otheremerging and self-pay geographies, making it a •Out-of-pocket dominance:India’s self-paystructure reflects the future of obesity carein LMICs, where affordability and patient India is not just another market in the global obesitynarrative; it is one of the first real battleground forSemaglutide post-LOE. With early patent expiry, a •Segmental heterogeneity:Winning in Indiarequires a fit-for-purpose strategy acrossincome segments, specialties (Endocrinology, Why Semaglutide’s LOE in India mayreshape both IPM and the global •Digital infrastructure:With ~900M internet usersand ~400M+ UPI users, India offers a scalabletestbed for digital-first GTM models, alternate 1.Early LOE timing in a high-burden market •India ranks as the third-largest obesity populationglobally, with 150M+ individuals above the BMI 4.Policy tailwinds and ecosystem activation •The Indian government is increasinglyrecognizing obesity as a public health priority.Initiatives under NP-NCD, POSHAN Abhiyaan, •Post LoE, the potential patient pool who canafford the Obesity therapy (~25% to 30%) isestimated to be higher than many developed or •It will be among the first markets globally toexperience semaglutide’s LOE, making it alive test case for how generics and innovators •India’s policy evolution could influenceframeworks across LMICs, especially where public- 5.A rare opportunity for scale and long- 2.A market still in formation •Post-LOE, obesity is projected to become oneof the top five disease areas in the IndianPharmaceutical Market (IPM), a pace of growth •Unlike mature LoE scenarios, India’s obesity careecosystem is still evolving. Patient journeys arefragmented, therapy adoption is nascent, and •Semaglutide’s expanding indication base (e.g.,MASH, MACE-3, CKD, heart failure, stroke andkidney disease) positions it as a backbone therapy •This creates a strategic white space, wheregenerics won’t just compete, they’ll co-create the 6.India’s emergence as a GLP-1 manufacturing hub Indian manufacturers are positioned to play astrategic role in the global semaglutide market •While China currently dominates the semaglutideAPI landscape, accounting for nearly 80% of global •Leading Indian pharmaceutical companiesincluding Aurobindo, Dr. Reddy’s, Lupin, Alembic,and Biocon are making bold bets on peptidemanufacturing, investing in kilo-scale synthesis Semaglutide’s LOE inIndia: Historical trends vs. India has witnessed over 25 Loss of Exclusivity (LOE)events since 2019, particularly in cardio-metaboliccategories such as DPP4s (vildagliptin, sitagliptin), 3.Aggressive market expansion •LOE events have h