司美格鲁肽在印度的专利到期：一个需要新策略的难得机会

A rare opportunity demanding a new playbook ASIT SABAT, Senior Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIADHIRAJ MENDIRATTA, Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIANIMITT DESAI, Associate Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIA Table of contents Introduction1India’s role in shaping the global anti-obesity opportunity2Why Semaglutide’s LOE in India may reshape both IPM and the global obesitymarket2Semaglutide’s LOE in India: Historical trends vs. emerging paradigms3Historical LOE playbook: common themes3Semaglutide’s LOE in India: A distinct departure from historical norms4Estimating the total marketopportunity11Strategic imperatives for generics players13Strategic imperatives forinnovators14Key factors that are likely to play in favor of the innovators14Key challenges the innovators need tonavigate15Conclusion: India’s Semaglutide LOE — A strategic blueprint for global obesity care16For innovators16For generics players16For the global obesity ecosystem16Appendix17References19About the authors21 awareness and evolving diagnostic frameworks,creates a strategic white space, one that demandsreinvention, not replication. Introduction Obesity is no longer a marginal health issue, itis a global epidemic with systemic implicationsacross cardiometabolic health, mental well-being,and healthcare economics. By 2050, nearly two-thirds of the global adult population is projectedto be overweight or obese, with Asia contributingsignificantly to this surge. The global anti-obesitymarket is forecasted to reach between $100 billionand $200 billion by 2030, driven by a rich pipeline ofover 150 assets, expanding indications, and risingpatientdemand.1,2 This paper draws on IQVIA’s global and India-specific research to address five critical questionsthat will shape strategic choices for both innovatorsand generics players: •Why India will be a critical market for the global anti-obesity opportunity? •Will semaglutide’s LOE in India follow historicalpatterns of other LoEs, or will it redefine them? •What is the overall opportunity size? India is at the center of this transformation. Withover 150M individuals above the BMI threshold forpharmacotherapy and a rapidly growing self- paysegment, India is not just a large market, it is astrategic launchpad for the next wave of obesitycare. Semaglutide’s Loss of Exclusivity (LoE) in India,expected within 12 months of innovator launch, createsa rare convergence of scale, timing, and strategicambiguity — where market rules are still being written. •What are the strategic imperatives forgenericsplayers? •What are the strategic imperatives for innovators? Each section of this paper is structured to explorethese questions in depth, offering insights intoemerging patient profiles, therapy phase dynamics,patient-led demand, pricing and supply constraints,and the evolving role of digital health and real-worldevidence. India’sSemaglutideLOE is not just acommercial event, it is a strategic moment that willshape the future of obesity care across emerging andself-pay markets globally. This paper contends that semaglutide’s LOE in Indiais unlikely to follow the traditional generics playbook.The market is still being shaped, patient journeys areevolving, and therapy adoption is influenced as muchby patient pull as by prescriber push. The compressedinnovator launch window, coupled with rising patient 3.Scalable learnings for global self-pay markets India’s role in shapingthe global anti-obesityopportunity India’s market dynamics mirror those of otheremerging and self-pay geographies, making it ablueprint for global launches •Out-of-pocket dominance:India’s self-paystructure reflects the future of obesity carein LMICs, where affordability and patientengagement will be decisive. India is not just another market in the global obesitynarrative; it is one of the first real battleground forSemaglutide post-LOE. With early patent expiry, avast self-pay population, and a digitally connectedecosystem, India offers a rare convergence of scale,timing, and strategic ambiguity — where market rulesare still being written. •Segmental heterogeneity:Winning in Indiarequires a fit-for-purpose strategy acrossincome segments, specialties (Endocrinology,Diabetology, Cardiology, Gynecology, CPs,GPs), and geographies (states and town class).These insights can be transferable to otherfragmentedmarkets. Why Semaglutide’s LOE in India mayreshape both IPM and the globalobesitymarket •Digital infrastructure:With ~900M internet usersand ~400M+ UPI users, India offers a scalabletestbed for digital-first GTM models, alternatechannels, and patient engagement strategies.5 1.Early LOE timing in a high-burden market •India ranks as the third-largest obesity populationglobally, with 150M+ individuals above the BMIthreshold for pharmacotherapy.•Post LoE, the potential patient pool who canafford the Obesity therapy (~25% to 30%) isestimated to be higher than many developed oremergingmarkets.3•It will be among the first