欧洲疾病预防控制中心-威胁评估简报：在欧盟_欧洲经济区检测猴痘病毒Ib支的本地传播

Detectionofautochthonoustransmission of 24 October 2025 Summary ThisThreatAssessment Brief aims toassessthe riskofautochthonoustransmission ofmonkeypox virus(MPXV)clade Ib in EU/EEA countriesin the context ofmale-to-malesexual transmission.It is intended forpublic health authorities in EU/EEA countries andisbased oncurrently availableevidence. It thereforecarries Epidemiological situation •On 10 October 2025, Spain reporteditsfirst locally acquiredclade Ibmpoxcase.On 17 October, fouradditional clade Ibmpoxcases were reported to ECDC among males without travel history by Italy (two),Portugal (one) and the Netherlands (one).Allfivecaseshad mild symptoms.Some of theindividuals •These recent cases, where there is no travel history,represent a different pattern of transmissionandindicatethat transmission may beoccurringin sexual networks among men who have sex with menin Riskassessment •Based on current evidence,the overall risk of MPXVclade Ibinfection isassessedasmoderatefor menwhohave sexwith menandlowfor the general population.•It islikelythat further cases are present among men who have sex with men in the EU/EEA but have not Recommendations •EU/EEA countries shouldensurelaboratorytesting iseasilyaccessible, particularlyin locations that servemen who have sex with men,andthatclinicians and laboratories can report cases to public health •Vaccination should be madeavailableto all individuals at substantially higher risk of exposure to MPXV,inaddition to other preventive measures.Public health professionals should adviseindividualsom groups athigher risk of infectionto seek vaccination proactively.•Contact tracing should be carried out after a case is identified,to enable control of onward transmission as Epidemiologicalsituation On 10 October 2025, Spain reporteditsfirst locally acquired clade Ibmpoxcase. The male patient reported notravel historyto a country withknown transmissionof clade Iband was fully vaccinatedin 2023[1]. On 17October, four additional clade Ibmpoxcases were reported to ECDC among males without travel history by Italy(two), Portugal (one) and the Netherlands (one). Of thesefive reportedcaseswithout travel history, twomentioned having sex with men. Of the four cases with information on vaccination status,onewasvaccinated. All These recent cases, where there is no travel history,represent a different pattern of transmission of clade Iinfections in the EU/EEA and indicate that transmission may be occurring in sexual networks among men who have Transmission among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men and their social networks has also beenrecently reported in California, USA after the detection of three unlinked clade I cases[2].These individualswere One additional imported casewasreported from Belgium inOctober2025in a male patient who also reported Other reported clade I cases in the EU/EEA have been imported or had clear links toimported cases.This includes30clade Ibmpoxcases previously reported to ECDC throughthe European Surveillance Systembetween 15August 2024 and 21 October 2025.Allindividualshad travel history or links to travel-associated casesand onwardtransmission wasmostly amongtheirhousehold contacts(children and other family members).Of the29cases Globally, imported clade Impoxcases have been reported by several countriesoutsideCentral Africa[3].Widecommunity transmission of clade I has not been established in any country outsideAfrica, however limited Anoutbreak ofMPXVclade IIbwas detectedin the EU/EEAin 2022,predominantlyamongmen who have sex withmen,with atotal of21099casesreportedin 2022.A combination ofchanging behaviour,infectioncontrolstrategies, increase of natural immunity through infections (especially amonghighlysexually active individuals),and targeted vaccination campaigns led to a sharp decline of the mpox outbreak in 2022, after whichmpoxcasesremained at relatively stable levels in the EU/EEA(867 casesin 2023,1726 casesin 2024 and1655 casesso far ECDC riskassessmentfor the EU/EEA ThisThreatAssessmentBriefhas been developed based on the currentlyavailable data at the time of publicationand follows the ECDCRapidRiskAssessment methodology, where the overall risk is determined by a combination Toassessthe riskofMPXV clade Ib infections intheEU/EEA, ECDCconsidered thefollowing: •Immunologicalcross protection among pox viruses existsand is expectedamongclades of MPXV. Therefore,past infection with MPXV clade II and/or immunisation with thesmallpox/mpox vaccine (particularly ifatwo-dose schedule was completed)is expected toreduce the likelihood of infectionanddiseaseseverity.Vaccineeffectiveness oftwo pre-exposure vaccine doses is estimatedto be82% (95% CI: 72–92), while even one PPVdose provides effectiveness of 76% (95% CI: 64–88). For post-exposure vaccination the vaccine effectivenesswas estimated at 20% (95%CI:-24–65)[7]. •Ongoing low-level circulation of clade IIbmpoxcasesamong men who have sex with menhas not resulted ina large