可持续频谱定价促进印尼数字经济发展

Spectrum roadmap for mobile in Indonesia Indonesia is among the largest and fast-growing digital economies in the Asia Pacificregion. The government’s digital roadmap for 2021-2024 recognises ICT infrastructureas a key enabler of digital transformation in Indonesia and the priorities include the Indonesia is at start of the 5G journey and operators are still at the initial phaseof their 5G rollout. As of Q3 2023, 5G network coverage is at 15% of population,compared to 97% for 4G. Currently, there is 452 MHz of mobile spectrum assignedin Indonesia, comprising 92 MHz in low-bands (below 1 GHz) and 360 MHz inmid-bands between 1 GHz and 7 GHz.1Compared to many Asia-Pacific markets, To support Indonesia’s digital ambitions, the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology(Kominfo) is planning to award several frequency bands over the next two years including 700 MHz, Rising spectrum costs despite falling ARPU In Indonesia, new spectrum is assigned by auction based on a 10-year licence duration with the option of a10-year extension upon the end of the initial period. Auction fees are payable annually over the first 10 years Since 2010, there have been several auctions involving 2100 MHz and 2300 MHz bands, as well as licenceextensions for existing spectrum holdings in 850 MHz, 900 MHz and 1800 MHz. The total mobile spectrumassignments in Indonesia have increased by 45% from 312 MHz in 2010 to 452 MHz today. Over the sameperiod, estimated total annual spectrum cost has increased by more than five-fold as a result of auction-relatedpayments and spectrum fees associated with licence renewals. In contrast, industry revenues have not kept 3.Additional spectrum of 480 MHz based on 2×45 MHz (700 MHz), 190 MHz (2.6 GHz) and 200 MHz (3.5 GHz).4.The spectrum fee (BHP IPFR) is calculated through formula which includes factors such as economy-wide inflation, High spectrum costs and implications Spectrum fees in Indonesia are already high – annualised, WACC-adjusted spectrum costs to recurringcellular revenue is currently at 12.2%, compared to the APAC and global median values of 8.7% and 7.0%,respectively.5As mobile users put greater demand on networks, more spectrum will be necessary to meet Expensive spectrum negatively impacts the quality of mobile networks. High burden of ongoing spectrumcost means reduced investment and slower deployment of the latest network technologies. This, in turn,means lower availability of mobile connectivity, decreased adoption, and a missed opportunity to benefitfrom the economic growth unlocked by advanced mobile use cases. This could mean lower-than-optimal Based on Indonesia’s spectrum roadmap,9GSMA Intelligence assessed the impacts of different spectrumcost scenarios on 5G network rollout, adoption and the associated socio-economic benefits over the period In the baseline scenario where the spectrum cost to recurring revenue ratio remains at the current levelof 12%, we forecast 5G coverage in Indonesia to reach 80% of population by 2030, with 5G penetrationrate reaching 41% in that year. Over the period 2024-2030, 5G is forecast to contribute more than However, the results indicate that 5G rollout will be delayed significantly if the cost of new spectrumbands continues to increase in line with prices from past auctions in Indonesia. In this scenario, Even in a scenario where the new 700 MHz, 2.6 GHz and 3.5 GHz bands are modestly priced at levelsconsistent with reserve prices from the previous Indonesia’s auctions, the significant amount of newspectrum means that the spectrum cost to revenue ratio will increase from 12% to 15% by 2030. This will Alternative spectrum cost scenarios based on international price benchmarks and extrapolated growthin costs also show significant negative impacts on 5G and GDP. In summary, our key findings are: —Over the 2024-2030 period, 5G is projected to contribute more than $41 bn (IDR 650 tn) in GDPto the Indonesian economy. —However, for a 1 percentage point increase in spectrum cost to revenue ratio, there is a corresponding2.8 percentage point slower network rollout. —If spectrum cost to revenue ratio continues to grow, coverage could be more than 20 percentagepoints lower by 2030 and 5G adoption could fall behind by over 2 years (11 percentage pointslower by 2030) —For the highest spectrum cost scenario, around one-third of the socio-economic benefits of 5G –some $14bn (IDR 216 tn) (cumulative over 2024-2030) in GDP could be lost. Recommendations The cost of spectrum in Indonesia has risen significantly in the last decade and this poses a majorthreat to future development of mobile services. To avoid total spectrum costs spiralling, a reductionin unit spectrum prices is vital. If not, operators will struggle to make the significant investments Our recommendations for Indonesia are: Ensure a clear spectrumroadmap that considers notonly current bands underplanning but also longer termsneeds for Indonesia, especiallyfor mid-b