密封卷土重来：启用苹果和安卓RCS

Sealing a comeback: enabling Apple and Android RCS INSIGHT SPOTLIGHT Apple’s announcement in September 2024 that it willincorporate support for Rich Communication Services(RCS) in the iPhone and wider device portfolio was asignificant move for the messaging ecosystem. Up untilthen, RCS had primarily been a Google-led initiative than the Android base because only other Android userscould be messaged and, even then, the service requiredpeople to activate it. Apple’s entry opens a new messaginggateway between different OS worlds, making RCS amore scaled alternative to WhatsApp. This report looks at Analysis The Apple boost effect Apple’s move into the RCS world is a material boost for thismessaging ecosystem for two reasons. First, the fact it hasadopted the industry standard means that Apple and Google haveconverged on the product, paving the way for their customers tomessage each other securely. Previously, Android device owners Second, Apple’s 30% global market share in smartphones addssignificant scale. RCS will be available for iOS 18.0 or later, withestimates that 25–30% of iPhones are already converted to thisversion of the OS, implying an addressable base of around 540million people (see chart). Combined with Android’s 4.5 billionbase, RCS capabilities are available to over 5 billion people. Thismust be caveated given that an addressable base does notnecessarily mean an actual user base. Google’s disclosure in 2023that RCS had around 1 billion active users would suggest, at least How to set up RCS on the network The converged RCS standards and adoption by Google and nowApple mean that a new provisioning solution is required toauthenticate handsets and other devices that support thetechnology.The provisioning requires an entitlement server thatcan authenticate and activate RCS on handsets and other devicesrunning on the networks of mobile operators that support RCS. The move also opens up further opportunities for telcos in thebusiness messaging space. This is a fragmented market in whichrich business messaging (RBM) sits alongside a collection of otheroptions from application-to-person (A2P), effectively SMS, toWhatsApp Business and other OTT alternatives. We estimate thatRBM volumes are currently running slightly over 20 billionmessages per year. This equates to around 0.4 messagesreceived per mobile subscriber each month via RBM. For context, •Secure enablement:Motive’s entitlement server uses highlysecure SIM-based authentication to activate RCS functionalityon compatible devices, including video, emoji and other richmedia. It is secure and prevents a hacker from getting into the •Scalable configuration:The process of managing theprovisioning of large-scale device volumes on a single network,which can run into the millions. The entitlement server The entitlement server is a prerequisite to enable RCS foroperators and will come into effect in 2025. Implications Mobile operators OEMs •The power of network effects –Apple’s blessing of RCSgives the messaging platform a material boost in the scale ofpeople that can use it. The iPhone has a 30% global marketshare in the actual number of device owners (not just channelsales), and this will be higher – often double – in the US,Europe and other advanced economies. RCS is a telco-ledinitiative to try and wrestle back relevance and revenue inmessaging that has migrated to WhatsApp and other OTTs.While there is little prospect of people substituting OTTs in •Android OEMs –Android makes up the vast majority of theRCS addressable user base at around 90% (with Appleaccounting for the other 10%) and virtually all of the activecustomers. However, with RCS now available on the iPhone,this opens the door to Android-iPhone messaging traffic andtherefore provides an incentive to innovate and improve the •Apple –RCS is a complementary platform to iMessage, thenative client for iPhone-to-iPhone messaging. RCS adoptionalso helps preempt compliance obligations stemming from theEU’s Digital Markets Act, which places requirements on largetech companies for interoperability in certain digital serviceareas, including messaging. Keeping up with RCS standards •Buy now, benefit now –Operators that support RCS shouldensure they have the right provisioning systems in place in2025 to activate the service on devices running on theirnetworks. The mix effect that will play out over the course of2025 towards a higher share of iPhones running on iOS 18,combined with compatible releases from Samsung and otherAndroid OEMs, means that having the entitlement server in Author Tim Hatt, Head of Research and Consulting