中国模拟芯片：周期性复苏比预期更艰难

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Charlie ChanEquity Analyst China Analog: Cyclical recoveryis bumpier than expected Daniel Yen, CFAEquity AnalystDaniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 Daisy Dai, CFAEquity AnalystDaisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Tiffany YehEquity Analyst Lucas WangResearch AssociateLucas.Wang@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2875 We are more cautious on China's analog market because: 1)pricing pressure may remain due to demand uncertainty; and 2) Ethan JiaResearch Associate Uncertain outlook for China analog; pricing pressure likely to persist:Accordingto TI at its 3Q25 analyst meeting (link, also refer to Joe Moore'sTXN outlookmodestly below expectations), China market pull-in slowed in 3Q25 as industrialdemand failed to deliver sequential growth. For China EV, which had been relatively Morgan Stanley appreciates your support inthe 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor)Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 12 Greater China Technology Semiconductors Asia PacificIndustry View Attractive Localization remains slow outside of China AI servers.Our supply chain checkssuggest that Chinese consumer and automotive customers still use TI products,even as TI raised prices on certain SKUs (seeFull-year Revenue Tracking BelowGuidance but Market Share Could Grow on Industry Price Hikes). We believe this Keep OW on Silergy, but lower PT to NT$268 from NT$378:We expect thecompany to guide down full-year revenue to low-single digit Y/Y for 2025, vs. ouroriginal assumption of 10% Y/Y growth. 3Q25 gross margin may decline further,driven by a slower Gen4 ramp and unfavorable product mix. In the mid-to-long term,AI server and optical module exposure to US customers remains a compelling Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Downgrade SG Micro to EW from OW; PT cut to Rmb80 from Rmb90:Followinga disappointing 3Q25 earnings and typical Q4 seasonality (seeRevenue shortfall &R&D spike drove EPS miss), we lower our 2026-27e EPS by 9% and 8%, reflectingweaker China analog IC demand. Although we still believe in a structural upcycle for For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to theDisclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. China's analog market has passed the cyclical trough Cyclical trough for PMIC We reiterate our view that the China analog IC market has passed its cyclical trough,underpinned by two critical inflection points: 1) industry-wide and channel inventory levelshave normalized to a healthy range (<150 days on average by 2Q25); and 2) ASP erosion However, our channel checks suggest the industry recovery remains bifurcated. Otherthan automotive and AI-related analog semi, broad-based consumer demand remainsanemic. We think the acceleration in 2Q25 shipments could have been driven by tariff- Price hike of memory (see Memory Refresh: Unprecedented Supercycle) in smartphoneand consumer electronics BOM costs could compress price increases for other semi Analog inventory is moving towards a healthy level Texas Instruments (TI, covered by Joe Moore):TI commented at its 3Q25 analystmeeting that customer inventories remained low and inventory depletion is behind TI. TImanagement felt comfortable with the current inventory level, but may lower some stock Analog Devices (ADI, covered by Joe Moore):During ADI's 3QFY25 analyst meeting backin August, management believed their clients were still digesting inventories, especiallyfor the industrial sector. However, channel inventories were lean (see Joe Moore's note: Comparison between SG Micro and Silergy We now prefer Silergy over SG Micro. We believe Silergy may have more cost controlopportunities over its peers, thanks to its own foundry in Hangzhou. Even though Silergyhas an aggressive product roadmap, we are seeing its operating expense ratio gap close Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates Silergy: Estimate revisions We lower our 2025/2026/2027 EPS estimates by 19%/21%/21%, respectively:We anticipate Silergy's 3Q25 revenue to be up 4% Q/Q, with GM continuing to go down, givena higher mix from consumer products, Therefore, we also lower our 2025 revenue andEPS forecasts by 5% and 19%, representing a below expectation auto business and highR&D spending. In addition, we expect Silergy's R&D expenses to develop auto and server Silergy: Valuation methodology We lower our price target to NT$268 from NT$378:We factor in our EPS estimatechanges in 2025-2027. We also rollover our m