2026-2027年三重超级周期：内存超级周期将持续至2027年，收入前所未有

SK Hynix000660.KS 000660 KS EQUITY: MEMORY Triple super-cycle in 2026-2027F Memory super-cycle to continue through 2027F withunprecedented revenue Closing price28 October 2025KRW 521,000 3Q25 OP in line with our estimate at KRW11.4tn, with DRAM/NAND OPM of 60%/0% SK Hynix recorded 3Q revenue and operating profit (OP) of KRW24.5tn and KRW11.4tn,respectively, in line with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates (OPKRW11.4tn).DRAMshipments grew by 8% q-q, while ASP rose by 5% q-q. We estimateDRAM OP at KRW11.5tn, with an operating margin of 60%.NANDshipments decreasedby 5%, but ASP shifted to an upward trend compared to the previous quarter, rising in thelow double digits due to increased SSD mix and NAND price increases. NAND operatingprofit margin (OPM) only marginally improved to the breakeven point (BEP) due to higher-cost product mix. Net profit reached KRW12.6tn, reflecting KRW3.3tn in investment gainsfrom the additional surge in Kioxia's (285A JP, Not rated) stock price (the value increasedfrom KRW5.4tn in end-2Q25 to KRW8.7tn in end-3Q25). We expect the company torecord 4Q total revenue and OP of KRW30.9tn and KRW16.2tn, respectively, with DRAMand NAND shipments growing by 5% and 11% q-q, respectively, and commodity pricesrising by 26% and 25% q-q for DRAM and NAND, respectively. We revise up 2026F commodity DRAM/NAND price y-y growth to 57%/65% based onexpected stronger demand; OPM to rise to past super-cycle peaks Amid strong demand for Al servers and traditional servers (for traditional cloud and AIinferencing), we revise up our industry outlook for HBM/commodity demand. Commodityprices are surging due to extremely strong demand for DRAM/NAND (SSD) commodities (report link). For 2026F, we revise up DRAM and NAND commodity y-y price growth to57% and 65%, respectively. This represents an additional upward revision from ourprevious forecast of 38% and 36%. Consequently, we project OPM for commodity DRAMand NAND to rise to levels seen during past super-cycle peaks, reaching 60-70% and 30-40%, respectively. Due to increased demand from ASIC companies, we also raise our2026F HBM shipment growth forecast from 30% to 42% y-y. We slightly revise upaverage HBM price from our previous forecast, as we believe the price negotiations withcustomers appear to have proceeded favorably for Hynix, on the back of better bargainingpower based on strong commodity prices. Consequently, we expect HBM profitability in2026F to be 61%, only slightly lower than 2025F despite higher cost and Samsung’s(005930 KS, Buy) entry into the HBM4 market. Source: LSEG, Nomura Research Analysts Asia Pacific Technology CW Chung - NIHKcwchung@nomura.com+852 2252 6075 Korea Technology Eon Hwang - NFIKeon.hwang@nomura.com+822 3783 2318 (continued in page 4) Heesoo Min - NFIKheesoo.min@nomura.com+822 3783 2333 Production Complete: 2025-10-29 22:58 UTC Key data on SK Hynix Company profile SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industries. The company manufactures semiconductors such asdynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory. Valuation Methodology Our 12-month target price of KRW840,000 is based on 12-month forward P/B of 3x (BVPS: KRW281,239). The benchmark index for this stock is theKOSPI 200. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price US tariffs on semiconductor products ESG We believe Hynix is heavily focused on following ESG policies. Recently Hynix issued green bonds worth USD 1 billion (KRW 1.1 trillion) and socialbonds worth KRW 440 billion to ESG. Green bonds are used for eco-friendly projects such as water quality management, energy efficiency, pollutionprevention, and ecological environment restoration and social infrastructure. Social bonds are invested in projects to solve social problems, such ascreating jobs, supporting the vulnerable, and building social infrastructure. Both bonds are used exclusively for ESG purposes. Furthermore, Hynixannounced the mid- to long-term roadmap ‘SV 2030’ for maximizing social value creation and set goals in four areas: environment, shared growth,social safety net, and corporate culture. The company presented a direction to focus on ESG management and explained that Hynix wouldstrengthen 'RE100' and 'Zero Net Emissions', which increase the use of renewable energy to 100% by 2050. Super-cycle to continue through 2027F, growing to an unprecedented revenue leveldue to limited supply expansion until 2027F Driven by robust demand, we believe the memory industry will accelerate ramp-upspeeds in available cleanroom as well as rapidly increase greenfield capacity. However,despite a faster capacity ramp-up in the existing cleanroom space, the impact on supplyexpansion in 2026F is expected to be limited due to long lead times (6-9 months).Industry-wide cleanroom availability acceleration is anticipated to occur in mid-2027F andmeaningful acceleration of production growth should start in late 2027F. Therefore