杠杆贷款市场从惨淡的第二季度反弹

Q3 2025 Leveraged Loan MarketBounces Back From a SpookySecond Quarter In This Report Analysis of Q3 Trends in LeveragedFinance INVESTMENT BANKING Highlights, Analysis, and ResultsFrom William Blair’s QuarterlyLeveraged Finance Lender Survey Leveraged Finance Newsletter Leveraged Loan Market Bounces Back From a SpookySecond Quarter volume of $366.2 billion, whichexcludes repricings and extensions,trails the same period in 2024 by 8%,as the market shock sparked by tariffannouncements brought new issuanceto a standstill in the second quarter.Outside of the loan market, high-yieldbond issuance also reached a multi-year high during the quarter with$118.2 billion of volume. This was thehighest mark since the second quarterof 2021, as interest rate cuts havedriven borrowers back to that market. prior quarter. This was the first timesince the second quarter of 2024 inwhich refinancings accounted for themajority of total new issue volume.The shift in activity is even morepronounced when including repricingsand extensions, with 82% of totalactivity falling into one of these threecategories. While opportunisticactivity has returned to center stage,year-to-date M&A-related volume rose14% year-over-year to $115.7 billion.M&A activity is up in 2025 across alltransaction types including LBOs,add-ons and corporate M&A, though itwas largely driven by first quarteractivity, as expectations for an M&Arebound gained traction before beingquickly scrapped by the market shockin April. Drilling into the third quarterspecifically, M&A-related volumes Significant volume returnedin the third quarter, led byopportunistic activity; lendersrated conditions as mostborrower-friendly in nearlyfour years. The leveraged finance market hasbrought a rollercoaster of emotions in2025 — optimism to fear to optimismonce again. The high levels of activitythat characterized the start of the yearreturned again in the third quarter, asconditions continue to become moreborrower-friendly. However, marketuncertainty persists as equities lingernear all-time highs amid brewinggeopolitical tensions and tariffdevelopments. Will we see continuedmomentum and a possible revival ofM&A activity, or will the markets fallback into the shadows? Following several quarters of morebalanced supply mix, the third quarterwas dominated by opportunisticrefinancing and repricing activity, aswas seen throughout much of 2024.Third-quarter refinancing volumefinished at $72.8 billion, upconsiderably from $27.8 billion the Borrower-Friendly Market Reaches New Highs Each quarter we ask middle-market lenders to rate overall conditions in theleveraged finance market on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most borrower-friendly conceivable. The index increased to 4.2, the highest level since late 2021,as lender demand continues to outpace supply. U.S. institutional loan volume totaled$143.7 billion in the third quarter,rebounding significantly from the$81.5 billion recorded the previousquarter. Third-quarter volume wasalmost exactly in line with the firstquarter as concerns around tariffs andthe broader macroeconomic outlookeased for the time being. Includingrepricings and extensions completedvia amendment, third-quarter volumereached a record high of $404.2billion. Despite the exceptionally activequarter, year-to-date new issue were up 8% compared to a mutedsecond quarter as the market recoversfrom the April shock. Dividends in the Spotlight Spreads Sink to Record Lows Despite rebounding volumes acrossboth the broadly syndicated and privatecredit markets, spreads have tightenedin the third quarter to near record lows.Competition among lenders remainsintense both across markets (broadlysyndicated vs. private credit) and withineach one individually, as lenderscompete for a lackluster supply oftransactions. Among respondentsto this quarter’s survey, heightenedcompetition and deal scarcity were atthe top of the list of factors expected tohave the greatest impact on the marketfor the remainder of the year. Theprimary effect of this heightened level ofcompetition has been decreased spreadsand OID. Of lenders who participated inWilliam Blair’s Leveraged LendingSurvey a majority indicated that spreadshave decreased for eight quarters in arow. Private credit pricing below S + 500used to be rarefied air but is nowincreasingly common, with over 50%of sponsored deals tracked by LCDduring the quarter falling below thoselevels. Similar trends are present withinthe broadly syndicated market, inwhich a lack of new-money issuanceopportunities has driven down spreads.By the end of the third quarter, averagespreads sat at or near post-COVID lowsfor borrowers across all ratings. Overall,the leveraged finance markets remainhighly receptive to new financingopportunities across all transactiontypes, uses of proceeds, and borrowersizes; conditions are highly borrower-friendly, making now a great time toexplore both opportunistic and M&A-related transactions. Entering the year, investors