美联储观察：在数据缺失的情况下倾向于劳动力风险

FedWatcher:Leaning into labor risksamidst lackof data Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com October14,2025 DB Fed Watcher: Leaning into labor risks amidst lack of data Summary:Powell’s comments focused on labor market risks and did not push back for the market pricing for rate cuts. Other officials’views remained dividedDB View: 25bps rate cut in October and December, reaching a neutral level of 3.625% Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. The green dots represent regional voters in 2025 and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officialsarerepresented by the gray dots. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicNotes:SeptemberCPIpreview–Oct-10-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress FedNotes:FlashsurveyonFedindependence–Oct-09-2025–Oct-09-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:ToptakeawaysfromourFallMacroConference–Oct-08-2025 USEconomicChartbook:Monthlycharts:Data-lessFedguidedbythe(r-)stars–Oct-07-2025 runSource: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank USEconomicChartbook:Thelabormarketthroughthelensofalternativeindicators–Oct-032025 Trade policyuncertainty recededfrom April butremained extremely elevated FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 USEconomicPerspectives:TrendInflationnear3%-Oct-02-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:Whyarepeatproductivitysurgemaynotbethesamepanaceaforpricepressures–Sep-29-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:Everythingyoudidn’twanttoknowaboutagovernmentshutdown–Sep-26-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank. AdditionalInformation Theinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedby DeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughthe informationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobe reliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthe contentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites.Ifyouusethe servicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotrade asprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamanner inconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetype ofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtor equitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethe currentjudgmentofthe authorasofthedateofthisreport.Theydonotnecessarilyreflectthe opinionsofDeutscheBankanda