零排放商用车：加速转型 2025投资者白皮书

Table of Contents Zero-emission commercial vehicle market4Policies17Manufacturers22Technology and economics26Risks throughout the electric truck and battery life cycle35Appendix46 About this report Road freight remains central in supporting economic activity around the world, but the trajectory of the sector’s carbon emissions currently does notalign with climate targets set by governments globally. This report documents the state of the zero-emission commercial vehicle market to help decision-makers navigate the nascent sector. It shows thatdespite economic and infrastructure challenges, the transition to cleaner road freight has started and is gathering pace. Marketparticipants areactively addressing the risks related to the value of commercial vehicles and batteries throughout their lifetime, indicatingthat some of these hurdlesare not as severe as originally expected. The report was produced byBloombergNEFin partnership with Smart Freight Centre. Smart Freight Centre (SFC) is a globally active non-profit organization for climate action in the freight sector. Ourgoal is to mobilize the global logistics ecosystem, in particular our members and partners, in tracking andreducing its greenhouse gas emissions.We accelerate the reduction of logistics emissionsto achieve a zero-emission global logistics sector by 2050 or earlier, consistent with 1.5C pathways. BloombergNEF(BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptivetechnologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for thepower, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commoditytrading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities. Introduction and key messages The market for medium and heavy trucks with zero tailpipe emissionscontinues to grow quickly. Technology development, infrastructureexpansion and policy actions mean electric trucks are already costcompetitive in some countries and use cases. As the market expands, andmanufacturers and operators gain more experience, some of the risksholding back wider adoption are increasingly being addressed. ●Commercial vehiclesare set to become the largest contributor to roadtransport CO2 emissions. Without further action, the truck sector is far from atrajectory consistent with net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Policy supportfor heavy vehicles and charging infrastructure in this segment is rising as aresult, albeit unevenly across countries. Global sales of zero emission trucks reach arecord in 1H 2025 ●Zero-emission truck salesapproached 90,000 units globally in the first halfof 2025, almost as many as in the whole of 2024. The global share of sales ison track to approach 4% in 2025. The Chinese market has widened its leadand accounts for more than 90% of global sales. The European market isgrowing strongly in more countries, while sales in the US have plummeteddue to policy reversals. ●Batteriesare the technology of choice for zero-emission trucks, capturing97% of global sales. Trucks with swappable batteries continue to hold asizeable share of the market in China, but this is declining as the marketexpands. The market for fuel cell trucks is concentrated in China and hassteadily declined for the last year. Introduction and key messages ●Pricesfor truck batteries in China last year fell to $90 per kilowatt-hour. There were two main reasons: a focus on lithium iron phosphate(LFP) chemistry and significant overcapacity in the country. Truckbattery prices outside of China were flat, due to muted demandgrowth. ●Large truck manufacturersare far behind their zero-emission trucksales targets for 2030. In the face of policy uncertainties, some are re-adjusting their strategies, but in doing so, may miss opportunities.Still,several high profile bankruptcies of startup e-truck makers havehad a limited impact on overall adoption. ●Electric truckscan be economically competitive today in locationswith low electricity prices, high diesel prices, or, when trucks run athigh utilization levels.As the economic case for electric trucksbecomes clearer, controlling costs matters. With relatively high gapsbetween diesel and electricity prices–such as in China and someEuropean countries–cost parity is closer than elsewhere. In the US,only the lowest electricity costs can make e-trucks as cheap as dieseltrucks. ●Most stakeholders currently assume very lowresidual valuefor thebatteries in electric trucks. In practice, thebattery can generaterevenue as a stationary storage asset and have its materials recycled.A lack of detailed data on battery degradation and little experiencewith long-term use of electric trucks causes uncertainty on the valueof these assets. Still, early data and anecdotal evidence indicate thatsuch risks may not be as severe as originally thought. Zero-emissioncommercial vehiclemarket Different spe