2025金融科技行业未来展望报告

October 2025 3Executive Summary5VC and Founder Perspectives6Macro Environment11Capital: VC Fundraising and Investment17Sector Spotlights: AI and Stablecoins20Exits If you’re looking for a respite from AI-mania, you’re in the right report. Despite promising usecases, fintech founders are operating in one of the least saturated spaces for AI adoption,with AI-enabled startups taking about 30 cents of every venture capital (VC) dollar in the sector—half the rate of VC overall. While other sectors are riding an updraft of AI exuberance to dizzyingheights, fintech founders have their feet, and their valuations, on solid ground. If only that groundwould stop shifting. The job of fintech founders isto harness tech shifts whilebalancing regulatorychanges and rate cycles.That’s easier when you havemoney in the bank, andincreasingly, the bestfintechsdo. Investment isup, cash burn is down,profitability is improving, andrevenue growth—whileslower than the go-go yearsof 2020-21—has stabilized.” Our latestFuture of Fintechreport finds the sector tilted by three dominant forces. Governmentregulations, which tightened during the Biden administration, are rapidly unspooling under aTrump term keen on cutting enforcement and rolling back rules. Interest-rate cuts—driven by aweakening economic outlook—promise to unlock capital but could require a shift in revenuestreams. Finally, there’s technology disruption. While AI offers long-term transformation, the moreimmediate impact is in blockchain, where stablecoins are ascending as a potential replacementfor conventional payment rails. The job of fintech founders is to harness tech shifts while balancing regulatory changes and ratecycles. That’s always easier when you have money in the bank, and increasingly, the bestfintechsdo. Investment is up, cash burn is down, profitability is improving, and revenue growth—whileslower than the go-go years of 2020-21—has stabilized. This momentum is helping to create exitvelocity. Successful IPOs, such as Circle and Klarna, are encouraging more public offerings and,in the AI era’s answer to the private equity (PE) style roll-up, more VC-backed companies arebecoming buyers. M&A deals are pacing toward a historic high. The sum of these parts suggeststhat fintech has quietly matured into a promising but perhaps more stable pocket of theinnovation economy. Right now, that’s a quality worth banking on. Nick ChristianHead of National Fintechand Specialty Financenchristian@svb.com Brian FoleyMarket Manager, Fintechand Warehouse Lendingbfoley@svb.com Navigating rate cuts amid weaklabor signals.Jump to PageJump to Page Crypto-focused funds are overperformingand outraising other funds. Jump to Page Revenue thresholds jump across allstages of VC.Jump to PageJump to Page Regulatory shifts clear the deck forfintechs. But can you bank on them? Jump to PageJump to Page Stabled unicorns have 3x more pent-upvalue than all fintech IPOs so far. M&A is set for an all-time high, thanks tomore buying from other startups.Jump to PageJump to Page After ZIRP1,fintechsembrace newstrategies for profitability. Jump to PageJump to Page “In recent years, the market has seen a lot of product innovation, butmany startups didn’t invest enough in compliance, risk anddiversification of funding. Those critical aspects are too oftenoverlooked. We’ve made huge investments in those areas, which maynot be apparent by looking at a pitch deck or website. You need acomplete business to reach critical scale and survive through cycles.” “The concept of roll-ups has existed for a long time in private equity.How I think of AI roll-ups is very different than PE roll-ups. While the PEthesis is about centralizing back-office functions and cutting costs atthe margin, an AI roll-up is centralizing through an AI-native operatingsystem. The growth strategyis adding books of business,convincing 10accountants at a time to bring their business around AI.” Justin OverdorffPartner JeffBoganChief Financial Officer “Reflecting on the last decade, there are a lot of companies that wouldn’tbe funded today. The “free lunch” hook—arbitraging student loans, freetrading, advances on paychecks—those shrewd moves worked at thetime, but you can’t play that game anymore. The cost of capital isnormalizing across consumer fintech. Now, it’s about getting back tobasics. Is the product experience10x better? Is the value proposition ano-brainer? Why now?” “You see a lot of traditional VCs coming into stablecoins because thereare so many use cases. You’re going to see big banks coming in andbuying stablecoin platforms.It makes sense for them.They wantmoney transfers cheaper, faster, smoother. You’re only going to seethis getting bigger and bigger. There’s tailwinds in this space.” SergeKassardjianCo-founder and General Partner Charles BirnbaumPartner The US economy has been in a liminal space for the pasttwo years as surging stock market gains are tempered bypercolating distress signals in the