流动秀——馅饼的和平

A Peace of the Pie 09 October 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 53.1%, bitcoin 31.1%, stocks 20.3%, IG bonds 9.6%, HYbonds 9.3%, govt bonds 6.4%, commods 5.7%, cash 3.3%, USD -8.8%,oil -12.8% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Having lunch with X and he is asking should he invest in physical gold orsilver or is it too late as his wine investments have been tanking?”–brother-in-law. The Price is Right:price action since Fed cut good for cash-needy not-for-profit tech(XBI, ARKK), bad for rate-sensitive cyclicals (IYR, ITB, XRT), employment trumps rates;“glue”that binds Wall St bull & Main St bear is credit and cracks (Chart 3 -BDC corpsbelow April lows, PE stocks & junk bonds rolling) why tactical long US dollar & zerocoupon bonds smart play to hedge risk that subprime consumer contagious. Tale of the Tape: gold fails $4k, silver $50 as“too hot right now”& short US$ unwind;still few structurally long gold (0.5% private client AUM, 2.3% institutional AUM), front-running of new Fed Chair + boom/bubble polices (see Argentina bailout) + asset goldrevaluation (à la 1934 & 1973) favors debasement trade…history no guide to future, butavg gold jump past 4 bull markets≈300% in 43 months ($6k peak next spring–Table 1). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: 15barrels of oil bought 1 ounce of gold in Jun’22, now takes 61(Chart 2); big oil loss + big gold gain a historical anomaly (Chart 4); oil relatively cheapbut we think best Q4 bull surprise is oil price cracks lower to $50/bbl (good for Trumpapproval on inflation, US/EU/Japan consumer, aids AI power needs) on OPEC supply(peace deal in exchange for capital to fund growth in Middle East growth as both Israeli& Saudi budget deficit currently 5% of GDP). Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Gold ($/oz) vs oil ($/bbl) ratio More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevantmarkets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11.12885483 Timestamp: 09 October 2025 10:11PM EDT Weekly Flows: $72.9bn to cash, $25.6bn to bonds, $20.0bn to stocks, $5.5bn to crypto,$2.1bn to gold. Flows to Know: •Cash: MMF assets continue to rise, now $7.4tn;•Gold: $2.1bn inflow…smallest in 3 weeks;•Crypto: $5.5bn inflow…biggest in 12 weeks;•IG bonds: $15.5bn inflow;•Bank loan: $1.4bn inflow…biggest in 13 weeks…notable 1stsign rate optimismpeaking;•Materials: $7.6bn inflow…record weekly inflow, YTD inflows annualizing record$79bn (Chart 5);•Healthcare: $1.5bn inflow…biggest since Apr’23 (Chart 6);•Financials: $0.2bn outflow…1stoutflow in 7 weeks. BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.9% stocks (highest since Mar’22), 17.8% bonds(lowest since Apr’22), 10.3% cash (lowest since Sep’18); decade-to-date, private clientinflows to T-notes ($45bn) now exceed inflows to T-bills ($39bn–Chart 13); biggestoutflow from equities since Feb'25 in past week; in past 4 weeks private clients buyingmuni bond, HY bond, IG bond ETFs, selling growth, utilities, staples ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:stays at 6.5 (12-month high) as strong inflows to HYbonds & EM stocks offset by weaker global stock index breadth (MSCI ACWI countrystock indices trading above 50-& 200-day moving averages down to 77%); watch BofAGlobal FMS (released Oct 14th) for greed signals (esp if cash level falls from 3.8% to3.7% or below). BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Annual inflow to material equity funds ($ bn) Asset Class Flows (Table 2) Equities:$20.0bn inflow($31.1bn inflow to