复合肥龙头企业，磷化工新项目经营转好

复合肥龙头企业，磷化工新项目经营转好 Leading compound fertilizer enterprise& Phosphorus chemical new project operation improves 最新动态 ➢2025年前三季度扣非净利润同比上升31.2%。25年前三季度，公司营业收入为92.9亿元，同比上升17.9%；归母净利润为8.15亿元，同比上升22.7%；扣非归母净利润为7.54亿元，同比上升31.2%。其中第三季度，公司营业收入为29.0亿元，同比上升31.4%；归母净利润为2.08亿元，同比上升35.4%；扣非归母净利润为1.82亿元，同比上升33.9%。 ➢复合肥毛利持续提升。公司复合肥毛利持续提升的核心原因包括三方面，一是产品结构优化，公司高毛利核心产品占比提升；二是原料把控能力增强，公司钾肥直供量增加，氮磷原料价格波动周期把控精准，成本端同比降低；三是渠道与定价策略有效，公司在东北市场未降价、不保价，终端价格稳定，避免利润让渡，渠道下沉减少中间环节，资金周转率提升。 ➢磷化工新项目经营转好。截至2025年8月，松滋新材料公司磷酸已达设计产能，可超产20%，精制磷酸、磷酸一铵保持较高负荷；黎河肥业受硫酸供应不足影响，产能利用率约60%，优先生产高毛利的58%/60%磷酸一铵，通过“以磷酸定产”保证运营。松滋产工业一铵部分自用生产水溶肥，尤其是西北市场需求大的五六月份。25H1，公司磷酸一铵销量为净增长，2024H1松滋基地尚未规模化生产，2025年新增量主要来自松滋新材料公司。 ➢园艺肥未来将维持高增长。公司园艺肥增速快因品类扩展至种苗、阳台工具等套餐产品，形成协同销售；依托电商渠道发力直播和多平台运营，回购率大幅提升。产品组合中，肥料与种苗、工具搭配销售效果显著，尤其在城市阳台园艺场景需求增长明显。公司园艺肥未来将维持高增长，目标成为细分领域头部企业。 动向解读 ➢公司作为复合肥龙头企业，市占率提升趋势将延续。未来1-2年，公司市占率有望进一步提高，因中小企业受原材料波动应对能力弱、渠道下沉不足、环保成本上升等影响持续退出，而公司通过产能布局、渠道深耕和产品优势抢占份额。复合肥中小企业盈利普遍较差，近年退出明显，主要原因包括原材料价格剧烈波动时中小企业采购和库存管理能力不足、渠道下沉不足导致终端价格管控混乱、保价政策导致利润亏损，以及环保、安全合规成本上升挤压其生存空间。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们给予公司2025-2027年归母净利润为10.07、11.74、14.09亿元，结合同行业可比公司估值，考虑到公司为复合肥行业龙头企业，给予一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年12倍PE，对应目标价12.24元，首次覆盖给予买入评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动的风险、下游需求不及预期、市场竞争的风险、环保政策的风险。 What’s New ➢Therecurring net profit for2025Q1-Q3increased by 31.2%YoY.In25Q1-Q3, the company's operating revenue was9.29 billion yuan(YoY+17.9%); The net profitwas 815 million yuan(+22.7%YoY); The net profitwas 754 million yuan(+31.2%YoY). In25Q3, the company's operating revenue was RMB 2.9 billion(YoY+31.4%); The net profitwas 208million yuan(+35.4%YoY); Therecurringnet profitwas RMB 182 million(+33.9%YoY). ➢The gross profit of compound fertilizer continues to increase.The core reasons for the continuous improvement ofthe company's compound fertilizer gross profit include three aspects: firstly, the optimization of product structure, and theincrease in the proportion of high gross profit core products in the company; Secondly, the ability to control raw materialshas been enhanced, with an increase in the company's direct supply of potassium fertilizer, precise control over thefluctuation cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus raw material prices, and a year-on-year decreasein costs; Thirdly, thechannel and pricing strategy are effective. The company has not lowered or guaranteed prices in the Northeast market,with stable terminal prices, avoiding profit transfer, reducing intermediate links in channel sinking, and improving capitalturnover. ➢The operation of the new phosphorus chemical project has improved.As of August 2025, Songzi New MaterialsCompany has reached its designed production capacity for phosphoric acid, which can exceed production by 20%.Refined phosphoric acid and ammonium phosphate maintain a high load; Lihe Fertilizer Industry is affectedby insufficientsupply of sulfuric acid, with a capacity utilization rate of about 60%. It prioritizes the production of high gross profit58%/60% monoammonium phosphate and ensures operation through "production based on phosphoric acid". Songziproducesindustrial ammonium andis partiallyself-usedtoproducingwater-soluble fertilizers, especially in May and Junewhen the demand in the northwest market is high.In25H1,thecompany's sales ofmonoammonium phosphate showeda net increase, and the Songzi base has not yet achieved large-scale production in2024H1. The new increment in 2025mainly comes from Songzi New Materials Company. ➢Horticultural fertilizers will maintain high growth in the future.The rapid growth rate of the company's horticulturalfertilizers is due to the expansion of product categories to include seedlings, balcony tools, and other package products,forming collaborative sales; Relying on e-commerce channels for live streaming andmulti-platformoperations, therepurchase rate has significantly increased. In the product portfolio, the combination of fertilizers, seedlings, and toolshas a significant sales effect, especially in urban balcony gardening scenes where demand has grown significantly.Thecompany's horticultural fertilizer will maintain high growth in the future, with the goal of becoming a leading enterprise inthe segmented field. What’s Different ➢As a leading enterprise in compound fertilizers, the trend of increasing market share of the company will continue.In the next 1-2 years, the company's market share is expected to further increase, as small and medium-sized enterprisescontinue toexitdue to weak ability to cope with fluctuations in raw materials, insufficient channel sinking, and risingenvironmental costs. The company will seize market share through capacity layout, deep channel cultivation, and productadvantages. The profitabilityof small and medium-sized enterprises in compound fertilizers is generally poor, and theirexit has been obvious in recent years. The main reasons include insufficient procurement and inventory managementcapabilities of small and medium-sized enterprisesduring severe fluctuations in raw material prices, chaotic control ofte