您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[环球富盛理财]:合作协议提振业绩预期,新增产能奠定增长基础 - 发现报告

合作协议提振业绩预期,新增产能奠定增长基础

2025-10-21庄怀超环球富盛理财L***
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合作协议提振业绩预期,新增产能奠定增长基础

合作协议提振业绩预期,新增产能奠定增长基础 Cooperation boosts performance,New production capacity lays the foundation 最新动态 ➢与瑞浦兰钧签订合作协议。2025年9月22日,公司全资子公司九江天赐与瑞浦兰钧签订了《合作协议》。协议约定,在本协议有效期内(自本协议生效之日起至2030年12月31日止),瑞浦兰钧(含瑞浦兰钧温州基地及下属各关联公司/基地)向九江天赐采购总量不少于80万吨的电解液产品,且九江天赐能满足瑞浦兰钧月度最高需求时不低于2万吨供应量。电解液产品之核心原材料六氟磷酸锂的价格由双方另行协商确定。本协议如果充分履行,将对公司2026年至2030年度经营业绩产生积极影响。 ➢固态电池材料预计2026年完成中试产线建设。公司在固态电池材料布局主要包括硫化物及氧化物固态电解质路线,目前硫化物路线的固态电解质处于中试阶段,主要配合下游电池客户做材料技术验证,同时中试产线建设也在持续的推动,公司计划在2026年完成中试产线建设,并具备中试量产的能力。 ➢逐步提升回收碳酸锂的使用比例。公司目前自供的碳酸锂原材料主要来源于锂矿资源加工和废旧电池回收业务。在锂矿资源布局方面,公司会综合考虑成本及相关风险因素,采取谨慎投资的策略。在回收业务上,公司将持续完善和开拓废旧电池的来源渠道,确保回收材料供应充足,并逐步提升回收碳酸锂的使用比例,以满足客户及欧洲电池法案等相关法规对回收材料使用比例的要求。 动向解读 ➢电解液及六氟磷酸锂的价格预计将趋于良性恢复。公司预计未来电解液及六氟磷酸锂的产品价格将逐步趋向于良性的恢复,一方面是受核心原材料碳酸锂的价格波动影响,另一方面是随着下游需求的持续提升,行业的产能利用率水平也稳步提高,在供需格局好转的背景下,产品价格及盈利水平也会稳步回升到合理水平。公司认为,目前六氟磷酸锂三家头部供应商的开工率已经处于相对较高水平,其他不具备成本优势的产能,实际的生产负荷低或没有实际开车,综合来看,目前六氟磷酸锂的市场供需处于相对平衡阶段。公司在现有生产的产线上存在技改提升产能的空间,但目前暂未考虑投放生产,公司会维持相对平衡的产能利用率水平,新增产能的投放节奏会结合市场的需求变化情况综合考虑。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们给予公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为11.40/16.25/22.51亿元。参考可比公司,考虑到公司固态电池材料建设和新增产能,给予公司一定估值溢价,给予公司2026年45倍PE,首次覆盖给予公司目标价38.25元,给予收集评级。 风险提示 技术迭代风险、原材料价格波动的风险、海外扩张风险、知识产权的风险。 What’s New ➢Signed a cooperation agreement withREPT Battero Energy.On September 22, 2025, the wholly-ownedsubsidiary of the company, Jiujiang Tianci, signed a "Cooperation Agreement" withREPT Battero Energy. Theagreement stipulates that during the validity period of this agreement (from the effective date of this agreementto December 31, 2030),REPT Battero Energy(includingREPT Battero EnergyWenzhou base and its affiliatedcompanies/bases) shall purchase a total of no less than 800000 tons of electrolyte products from JiujiangTianci, and Jiujiang Tianci shall be able to meetREPT Battero Energy's monthly maximum demand with asupply of no less than 20000 tons. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the core raw material ofelectrolyte products, shall be determined through separate negotiation between the two parties. If thisagreement is fully implemented, it will have a positive impact on the company's operating performance from2026 to 2030. ➢The construction of the pilot production line for solid-state battery materials is expected to becompleted by 2026.The company's layout in solid-state battery materials mainly includes sulfide and oxidesolid-state electrolyte routes. Currently, the sulfide route's solid-state electrolyte is in the pilot stage, mainlycooperating with downstream battery customers for material technology verification. At the same time, theconstruction of the pilot production line is also continuously promoted. The companyplans to complete theconstruction of the pilot production line by 2026 and has the ability to mass produce it. ➢Gradually increase the proportion of recycled lithium carbonate usage.The company's current selfsupplied lithium carbonate raw materials mainly come from lithium mineral resource processing and wastebattery recycling business. In terms of lithium mining resource layout, the company will comprehensivelyconsider costs andrelated risk factors, and adopt a cautious investment strategy. In terms of recyclingbusiness, the company will continue to improve and explore the sources of waste batteries, ensure sufficientsupply of recycled materials, and gradually increase the proportion of recycled lithium carbonate to meet therequirements of customers and relevant regulations such as the European Battery Act on the proportion ofrecycled materials. What’s Different ➢The prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphatetendtowards a benign recovery.Thecompany expects that the prices of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate products will gradually tendtowards a benign recovery in the future. On the one hand, this is due to the price fluctuations of the core rawmaterial lithium carbonate. Onthe other hand, with the continuous improvement of downstream demand, theindustry's capacity utilization level will steadily increase. Against the backdrop of an improved supply-demandpattern, product prices and profitability levels will also steadily rise to a reasonable level. The companybelieves that the operating rates of the three top suppliers of lithium hexafluorophosphate are currently at arelatively high level. Other production capacities that do not have cost advantages have low actual productionloads or no actual start-up. Overall, the market supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate are in arelatively balanced stage. The company has room for technological upgrades to increase production capacityon its existing production lines, buthas not yet considered launching production. The company will maintainarelatively balanced level of capacity utilization,and the pace of launching new capacity will becomprehensively considered in conjunction with changes in market demand. Action ➢Profit forecast.We give the company net profit of RMB1.140/1.625/2.251billion for 2025-2027Referring tocomparable companies, considering a certain valuation prem