受益于制冷剂长景气周期，布局高端氟材料产品

受益于制冷剂长景气周期，布局高端氟材料产品 Benefiting from the long-term prosperity&laid out high-end fluorine material products 最新动态 ➢公司为制冷剂行业龙头企业。公司氟制冷剂配额总量绝对领先，主流品种齐全且处于龙头地位，这是公司的优势，拥有更大主动权和运作空间。公司将未雨绸缪，积极做好各种应对准备，努力创造更好价值。公司目前R32总产能19万吨（本部13万吨、山东飞源3万吨、阿联酋3万吨），在建3万吨，预计能够满足生产需求。 ➢布局液冷及数据中心等高端应用领域产品。作为国内氟化工龙头企业，公司的发展定位不仅仅围绕液冷市场发展某种冷却液，而基于对航空航天、军工、半导体、集成电路、信息产业和人工智能、新能源等产业快速发展的预期，持续加大研发投入，加快高性能氟材料的产品研发和应用开发。为此，公司在改性PTFE、电子级PFA、FEP、PVDF、全氟磺酸树脂等含氟树脂，氟橡胶（含过氧化物硫化氟橡胶、全氟醚橡胶等），氢氟醚系列、全氟聚醚系列等产品均有产能布局。未来仍将加大研发创新，加强新产品、专用品种、新应用等方面的研发。在数据中心领域，需要多种氟材料产品支撑。如专用氟树脂作为电和信号导线、管线、覆铜板加工等材料应用，专用氟橡胶作为密封件应用。氟制冷剂作为冷水机组应用或冷板式冷却液应用，R227ea作为灭火剂应用，氢氟醚、全氟聚醚作为浸没式冷却液应用等。 ➢加快研发四代制冷剂产品。第四代氟制冷剂是公司当前及今后一定时期的发展重点。目前，公司第四代氟制冷剂主要是HFO-1234yf、HFO-1233zd品种。其中，HFO-1234yf今年产能到1万吨/年，预计可达满产水平。此外，甘肃巨化计划建成年产3.5万吨HFO-1234yf（多工艺路线）。HFO-1233zd受发泡剂市场影响，产销量不及预期。从目前的替代品开发路线看，在氟制冷剂中，主流并不是HFOs单工质直接应用并对HFCs替代，而是同时含HFOs、HFCs的混配产品。 动向解读 ➢氟制冷剂市场保持良好增长趋势。以目前最大的两个消费市场（家用空调和汽车）为例，根据国家统计局的数据，2022年至2025年1-7月，我国房间空气调节器、汽车产量持续增长。尽管近几年我国房地产处于下行周期，但我国房间空气调节器产量仍稳定增长。2022年22247.3万台，同比+1.8%；2023年24487.0万台，同比+13.5%；2024年26598.4万台，同比+9.7%；2025年1-7月18345.5万台，同比+5.1%。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们给予公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为45.11/58.21/61.96亿元。参考可比公司，给予公司2026年19倍PE，首次覆盖给予公司目标价41.04元，给予收集评级。 风险提示 在建项目不及预期；制冷剂需求不及预期。 What’s New ➢The company is a leading enterprise in the refrigerant industry.The total quota of fluorine refrigerants in thecompany is absolutely leading, with a complete range of mainstream varieties and a leading position. This is theadvantage of the company, with greater initiative and operational space. The company will takeproactive measures,actively prepare for various responses, and strive to create better value. The company currently has a total R32production capacity of 190000 tons (130000 tons in the local port, 30000 tons in Shandong Feiyuan, and 30000tons in the United Arab Emirates), with 30000 tons under construction, expected to meet production demand. ➢Layout high-end application products such as liquid cooling and data centers.As a leading domestic fluorinechemical enterprise, the company's development positioning is not only focused on developing a certain type ofcoolant in the liquid cooling market, but also on the expectation of rapid development in industries such asaerospace, military, semiconductor, integrated circuit, information industry, artificial intelligence, and new energy. Itcontinues to increase research and development investment,acceleratingthe product research and applicationdevelopment of high-performance fluorine materials. To this end, the company has established production capacityfor modified PTFE, electronic grade PFA, FEP, PVDF, perfluorosulfonic acid resin and other fluorine-containingresins, fluororubber (including peroxide vulcanized fluororubber, perfluoroether rubber, etc.), hydrogen fluorideether series, perfluoropolyether series and other products. In the future, we will continue to increase research anddevelopment innovation, strengthen the research and development of new products, specialized varieties, newapplications, and other aspects. In the field of data centers, various fluorine material products are needed to supportit. Special fluororesin is used as a material for electrical and signal wires, pipelines, copper-clad laminate processing,and special fluororubber is used as a sealing component. Fluorine refrigerant is used as a chiller or cold platecoolant, R227ea is used as a fire extinguishing agent, and hydrofluoroether and perfluoropolyether are used asimmersion coolant. ➢Accelerate the research and development of fourth generation refrigerant products.Thefourth-generationfluorine refrigerant isthe focus of the current and future developmentof the company. At present, the company'sfourth generation fluorine refrigerants are mainly HFO-1234yf and HFO-1233zd varieties. Among them, theproduction capacity of HFO-1234yf will reach 10000 tons per year this year, and it is expected to reach fullproduction level. In addition, Gansu Juhua plans to build an annual production capacity of 35000 tons of HFO-1234yf (multi process route). HFO-1233zd was affected by the foaming agent market, resulting inlower-than-expectedproduction and sales volume. From the current development path of alternatives, the mainstream influorine refrigerants is not the direct application of HFOs as a single working fluid to replace HFCs, but a mixedproduct containing both HFOs and HFCs. What’s Different ➢The fluorine refrigerant market maintains a good growth trend.Taking the two largest consumer marketscurrently (household air conditioning and automobiles) as an example, according to data from the National Bureauof Statistics, the production of room air conditioners and automobiles in China will continue to growfrom Januaryto July 2022 to 2025. Despite the downturn in China's real estate market in recent years, the production of room airconditioners in China has continued to steadily increase. 222.473 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of1.8%; 244.87 million uni