资本货物：9月非挖掘机械销售复苏表明了早期上行周期迹象

Recovery of non-earth moving machinerysalesin Sepsuggestsearly sign of upcycle China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) releasedover the weekendthefull set of construction machinery sales data forSep.Domestic sales of non-earth-moving machinerysaw good recovery of sales, suggesting an early signof the beginning of upcycle(earth-moving machinery upcycle began in 2024).Domestic sales of truck cranesand crawler craneswere particular strong(+41%/+67%YoY), while forklift salesremainedresilient. Exportsin Sep werestrong across differentmachineries(except AWP).We believe furtherrecoveryof non-earth-moving machinery demand will serve asa sectorcatalyst.MaintainBUYonZoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH),SANY Heavy (600031 CH)andJiangsuHengli(601100 CH).On the contrary,we remain cautious onZhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, HOLD)due toweak AWP industry sales anduncertainties on US tariff. China Capital Goods Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Highlights on non-earth-moving machinery in Sep Truckcranes:+22% YoY.Domestic sales grew 41%YoY in Sep,acceleratingfrom +7% in Jul and +28% in Aug.Exportsgrew 8% YoY inSep,improvingfrom-25% in Aug.Crawler cranes:+33% YoY. Domestic sales surged 67% YoY in Sep(accelerated from+52% in Aug),representing growth(YoY)for fourconsecutive months. Exportsgrew 18% YoY.Forklift:+23% YoY.Domesticsalesgrew 29%YoYin Sep, the highestgrowth since Feb. Exportsremained resilient, growing 14%YoYin Sep.Tower cranes:-7% YoY.Exportsgrew 28% YoY inSep, similar to Aug(+27%). Domestically, salesdeclined29% YoY(dragged by weak propertyinvestment), buthave seena gradual improvementsinceJul. Related reports:Capital Goods–HDT sales +82% in Sep –9 Oct 2025 (link) Capital Goods–Strong domestic salesand export of excavators in Jul–8 Aug2025 (link) Jiangsu Hengli–2Q25 earnings growthaccelerated; Staying positive on bothexisting and new business–26 Aug2025 (link) SANY Heavy–2Q25 profit +38% YoYwith interim dividend; Solid upcycle–22Aug 2025 (link) Source:CCMA, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGM Source: Komatsu, CMBIGM Source:Komatsu, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGM estimates Source: Komatsu, CMBIGMestimates Source:CCMA, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGMestimates Source:CCMA, CMBIGM Source:CCMA, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGM Source:CCMA, CMBIGM Source: CCMA, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst norhis/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report;(2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential lossof over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to performin-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F,Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperforma