关税与通胀：缓慢升温

Tariffsand inflation: A slow burn Tariffsare increasing prices more slowly than in 2018-19, butthe pass-through is similaraftera few months. We predict acumulative price leveleffectof c.1% to core PCE due tomoderate (7.5-10bp per month), yet persistent, monthlytailwinds, which begin to taper from January. Mark Cus Babic+1 212 526 1870mark.cusbabic@barclays.comBCI, US Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US •Tariffsareaffectingconsumer prices more slowly than in 2018–19, but early signs suggest theimpact is similar two to three monthsafterimposition. Based on current data and the 2018-19episode, we estimate that the priceeffectbuilds gradually over 6-8 months. Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US •Our baseline scenario pegs the cumulativeeffecton the core PCE price level at c.1%, largelyconsistent with ourofficialforecast. For monthly prints, we predict moderate but persistentmonthly tailwinds (c.10bp or slightly more to core PCE) between June and December 2025. Ina lower and slower pass-through scenario, the monthly boost could be c.7.5bp. Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, US •Our models suggest that one-third to 40% of thetariff-relatedprice increases hadbeen realised by July. Barring second-roundeffects,the sequential inflation boost couldbegin to taper from January and disappear by mid-2026. Without new sectoraltariffs,thetailwind to m/m inflation could begin to ease as soon as November. Forecasts based on ourmodel align with ourofficialforecast. Colin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US •The boost to any given month is relatively small, makingtariffsdifficultto distinguish frommonthly volatility in core PCE. Risks are skewed to the downside, aseffectivetariffsremainlow, the imprints of new sectoraltariffsare uncertain, and pass-through may be slower. •We estimate pass-through by mappingeffectivetariffchanges to the cost increase for eachPCE component using input-output tables and relating costs to prices using local projections. Setting the stage Conceptual framework We begin by outlining a conceptual framework for assessing theeffectoftariffson inflation. Wethink of each component of PCE as comprising a mix of domestic and foreign inputs. Theeffectoftariffson the price of a certain item can then be thought of as the product of three factors: 1.Averagetariffrate on the foreign inputs of the item; 2.Import intensity of the item; and3.Theeffectof a unit increase in input costs on consumer prices. Theeffecton aggregate inflation is a function of those factors, as well as each item's weight inthe index. Importantly, both the averagetariffand import intensity should reflect not only direct exposureto foreign inputs but also indirect ones. For example, a domestically produced goodimayincorporate another domestic goodjas an input, which itself relies ontariffedforeign inputs.This implies that goodiinherits some degree of import intensity and is subject to a non-zeroeffectivetariff. In this report, we construct an estimate of thetariff-relatedinput cost increase for each PCEcomponent, accounting for such indirect foreign inputs. The rest of this section presents dataon the determinants of this cost increase. Next, we compare the cost increases to changes inPCE prices to assess pass-through (section Estimating pass-through). We then combine the twoto show how muchtariffsimplemented so far (Inflationary boost fromtariffsimposed until July)and those still in the pipeline (Effectof futuretariffpolicy changes) will increase inflation thisyear and next. Finally, we compare the model estimates to ourofficialforecast (Comparison toofficialforecast). We refer to PCE prices throughout due to data availability.1 Tariffincreases on foreign inputs Figure 3 illustrates the rise intariffson foreign inputs used in high-level components of coregoods PCE, as well as key aggregates. The chart is constructed by mapping observedtariffsbyproduct to core PCE components based on their input composition. Between December 2024and July 2025,2tariffson foreign inputs for core goods rose by about 9.0pp. Among the mostaffectedcategories are new motor vehicles, sporting equipment, householdappliances, and tools and equipment for home and garden. In contrast, pharmaceuticals and ITequipment experienced minimal increases, largely due to exemptions fromtariffs.Notably,while services are less exposed to directtariffincreases, they still saw an average rise of around4.5pp, reflecting their reliance ontariffedgoods as intermediate inputs. Import intensity Figure 4 presents import intensity across the same PCE components. On average, importedinputs account for roughly 15% of core PCE, consistent with prior estimates (San Francisco Fed,2019). This share is higher for core goods (27%) and lower for services, though the latter stillexhibit meaningful import exposure—just over 10%, primarily through indirect channels.Among goods, hous