东南亚包裹量在2025年第三季度进一步加速

Parcel growth in SEA further accelerated in3Q25 Target PriceHK$13.40Up/Downside38.0%CurrentPriceHK$9.71 J&T’s parcel volume growth in 3Q25 reached 23%YoY, driven by outstandinggrowth of 79% in SEA. Whiletheparcel volumegrowthin China slowed to 10%due tothe “anti-involution” campaign, it was alongside a rebound of ASP. Inview of the strong growth in SEA, we see upside to J&T’sfull-year parcel volumegrowthguidance(+56%in SEA). We continue to like J&T, due to (1)theunmatched competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA (32.8% in1H25), and (2)strongpotential in New markets such as Brazil and the MiddleEast.We have leftourSOTP-basedTPunchanged atHK$13.4.ReiterateBUY. China LogisticsWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Key takeaways from3Q25results andcall: Southeast Asia (SEA)volume +79% YoY to2bn units.The growthisimpressive asit represents anacceleration from50%YoYin 1Q25and 66%YoY in 2Q25.Management mentioned thatthe growth was driven by boththe increase in penetration rate of e-commerce (key customers’ aggressivepromotioninThailand and Vietnam), as well as J&T’s market sharegains(as customers continue tolookfor low-cost logistics services). Shareholding Structure China volume +10% YoY to 5.6bn units.TheYoYgrowth rate slowed from15% in2Q24,but is largely expected due to the “anti-involution” campaign.Managementrevealedthat J&T’s ASP recovery in 3Q25 was similar to theindustrytrend.Besides, following the rising parcel ASP trend, customerswith low average order value (AOV)havebeen forced to exit from themarket. New markets volume +48% YoY to104mn units.The growthcontinuedto bedriven bynew customers.While J&T expects the upcoming growth inMexico will slow due to the increase in tariff, the growth in Brazil will likelymore than offset the negative impact. J&T maintainsthefull-yeargrowthguidance of 40% for New markets. Risks:1)ASP pressure;2)competition in new markets. Source: FactSet Related reports:J&T Express(BUY)–1H25 profit a mixed bag but growth story well intact–1 Sep2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–Impressive parcelvolume growth in SEA–9 Jul 2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)-Impressive volumegrowth in 1Q25; yet price competition inChina remains a concern–10 Apr 2025(link) J&T Express (U/G to BUY)–More visiblepath to achieve profitability–21 Aug 2024(link) Valuation Weapply different EV/EBITDA multiples fordifferent marketsto better reflect their respective growth outlook.Wemaintainour SOTP-based TPofHK$13.4. SEA:Wemaintainourtarget multipleof14x, which is~80% premium over the global integrated logisticsoperators (7.7x). Ourlarger targetpremium is to reflect J&T’sstrong pricing power and continuousmarket sharegainsin the region. China:Wemaintainourtargetmultipleof6.5x,in line with the major peers.We expect the “anti-involution”campaign will lend support to the valuation. Newmarkets.Wehave leftourtargetmultipleunchanged at20x.Our valuation premium is to reflect the stronggrowth potential in the Latin America and the MiddleEast markets. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) allof the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listedcompanies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential returnof +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International CapitalCorporation Limited (a who