绿色发展治国方略：全球南方绿色结构转型的国际维度

The InternationalDimension of GreenStructural Transformationin the Global South Acknowledgements This report is the outcome of a workshop sponsored by Open Society Foundations. We thank themfor their support. We also thank the Rockefeller Brothers Fund for their support. We would like to thank Navroz Dubash, Solomon Owusu, Tim Sahay and Todd Tucker for theirparticipation and input during the workshop. Additionally, we thank Rosa He, Yuan Liu and AnkitPatro for excellent research assistance. Finally, we thank Sydney Dao, Samantha Igo, EmanneKhan, William Kring, Bianca Ortiz and Victoria Puyat for overall coordination and communicationssupport. Suggested Citation Kozul-Wright, Richard and Kevin P. Gallagher et al. 2025. Green Developmental Statecraft:TheInternational Dimension of Green Structural Transformation in the Global South. BostonUniversity Global Development Policy Center. Green Developmental Statecraft The International Dimension of GreenStructuralTransformation in the Global South By Richard Kozul-Wright,KevinP.Gallagher,John Asafu-Adjaye,PraveenaBandara,RishikeshRam Bhandary,Laura Carvalho,Marcos V. Chiliatto,RobDavies,Renato de Gaspi,MartinGuzman,Jeff Hall,Tim Hirschel-Burns,Kristen Hopewell,Mausam Kumar,Joanna Lewis,Yin Shao Loong,Juan Carlos Moreno Brid,Vera Mshana,Savior Mwambwa,DaoudaSembene,Pankaj Singh,Kyla Tienhaara,Julia Tijaja,Daniel Titelman,Rachel Thrasher,Elizabeth Thurbon,Marilou Uy,Robin VargheseandMarina Zucker-Marques. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 INTRODUCTION3 STRATEGIES FOR GREEN STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION5 THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE AND GREENSTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 21 THE GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT REGIME AND GREENTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 28 THE GEOPOLITICAL ECONOMY OF GREENSTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION36 CONCLUSION45 REFERENCES46 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the past 12 months, efforts to tackle a warming planet have lost momentum. Even as thethreshold to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was being breached, the largest historicalemitter—the United States—withdrew from the Paris Agreement and abandoned the country’s big-gest ever green investment program. Meanwhile, the European Union has made it clear that defenseagainst perceived security threats is its new top priority for the remainder of the decade. There hasalready been a dialing back on climate initiatives at the Western-led Bretton Woods Institutions andby private financiers, with meaningful progress on the climate financing challenge stalling at the verymoment greater effort is urgently needed. As a result, global carbon emissions are on track to reachnew highs while the economic damage from climate-related shocks climbs to hundreds of billionsof dollars annually. Against this backdrop, this report looks at how to better combine the national and internationaldimensions of green structural transformation (GST) in the Global South. For most developing coun-tries, this transformation involves a triple movement of diversifying their economy (with industrial-ization a priority for most), decarbonizing their energy supply, transportation system and productionprocesses and adapting to increasingly damaging climate shocks. Insisting on differing responsibilities and local circumstances, an increasing number of countries inthe Global South are willing to launch a big investment push to support a GST. But tackling poten-tial obstacles and constraints will require a more active policy agenda, a break with austerity and awhole of government approach. Repairing and enhancing state capacity with these aims in mind isan urgent task for many. While the scale of the challenge cannot be underestimated, nor should the opportunities. Theinvestment commitments, both public and private, that accompany GST also carry the potentialfor faster and sustainable growth. The report looks at this challenge through the lens of industrialpolicy. It argues that it is key to not only shift a country’s economic structure toward higher-produc-tivity activities, but also to simultaneously align that structure with low carbon-intensive (and moreresource-efficient) production techniques while also abandoning more carbon intensive sectors andtechnologies. More than ever, green industrial policy involves the management of both creative anddestructive processes. However, in today’s interconnected global economy any such national strategy will necessitatestrong support from international institutions. This report details the shortcomings of the currentinternational system and highlights a three-pillared policy strategy of green developmental state-craft and international cooperation, which could enhance resource mobilization, policy space andmacro-financial management. In terms of resource mobilization, most countries, both developed and developing, need to investupwards of an additional 3 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP) in green structuraltransformation. However, many developing countries fac