美联储观察：政策观点分歧扩大

FedWatcher:Range of policy views getswider Amy YangEconomist(+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew LuzzettiChief US Economist(+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett RyanSenior Economist(+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin WeidnerEconomist(+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik ChattopadhyayResearch Associateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com September 29, 2025 DB Fed Watcher:Range of policy views gets wider Summary:Fed officials emphasized a balanced, careful approach towards further rate adjustment, w/t Governor Miran and Bowman being dovish exceptionsDB View: 25bps rate cut in October and December, reaching a neutral level of3.625% Identifying the 2025 dot plot divide Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fedpresident. The green dots represent regional voters in2025and red dots represent regional voters in 2026. All other officials arerepresented by the gray dots. Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicPerspectives:Whyarepeatproductivitysurgemaynotbethesamepanaceaforpricepressures–Sep-29-2025 Measures of broad-based inflation show someevidence of stalling progress Markets priced 2 cuts by year end with ~80%probability USEconomicPerspectives:Everythingyoudidn’twanttoknowaboutagovernmentshutdown–Sep-26-2025 FedNotes:JayPowell'sneutralhunters–Sep-24-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:USoutlookCliffsNotes–Sep-22-2025 runSource: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics,Deutsche Bank Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank Trade policyuncertainty recededfrom April butremained extremely elevated FCI-G has eased substantially back to thelevel seen in 2022 GlobalEconomicsBriefing:GlobalEconomics:TheMonthlyFlyover–Sep-22-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:Wideningourlenstoyieldabrighterestimateofr-star–Sep-22-2025 FedNotes:Who'swhointheFed'slatestdotplot?-Sep19-2025 PodzeptPodcast:MacroMATTers:FOMCrecapandFedoutlookintoyearend–Sep-19-2025 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Knowledge Partners, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank. AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites.IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankp