2025不可逆的变革：人工智能与未来工作研究报告

AI AND THE FUTUREOF WORK First published in January 2023 by Maxim InstitutePO Box 49 074, Roskill South, Auckland 1445, New ZealandPh (0064) 9 627 3261 | Fax (0064) 9 627 3264 | www.maxim.org.nz Copyright © 2025 Maxim Institute978-1-0670414-0-3 – PDF978-1-0670414-1-0 – Hard copy This publication is copyright. Except for the purpose of fair review, no part may be stored or transmittedin any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including recording or storage in any informationretrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. No reproduction may be made, whether byphotocopying or by any other means, unless a license has been optained from the publisher or its agent. Maxim Institute is an independent think tank, working to promote the dignity of every person in New Zealand,by standing for freedom, justice, and compassion. At the core of our work is an understanding that it is ideas that will shape society over time, so we’re engagedin long-term research and analysis of the policies and ideas that inform our nation’s social, political, andcultural practices. To find out more, head to maxim.org.nz. Table of Contents INTRODUCTION: LIVING WITH AI..............................................................................................................................1EXPOSURE TO AI......................................................................................................................................................5Three considerations:..........................................................................................................................................5What timeframe?...........................................................................................................................................5Which industries?..........................................................................................................................................5Which occupations?.......................................................................................................................................5A further consideration........................................................................................................................................6Assist or replace employees by tasks..............................................................................................................6Looking at timeframes more closely: now, the next five years, the next decade....................................................7Employment in New Zealand.........................................................................................................................11Summary............................................................................................................................................................11INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS AT RISK—INTERNATIONAL FINDINGS..................................................................12The current situation...........................................................................................................................................12The picture in five years.......................................................................................................................................12The ten-year picture—trends.............................................................................................................................14AI’S IMPACT ON SOCIAL STATUS AND PAY...............................................................................................................15Summary............................................................................................................................................................15IMPACT ON NEW ZEALAND EMPLOYMENT..............................................................................................................17Men and women..................................................................................................................................................17Age.....................................................................................................................................................................18Ethnicity..............................................................................................................................................................19European and Asian......................................................................................................................................20Māori.............................................................................................................................................................21Pacific Peoples.............................................................................................................................................22Summary................................................................................................