解锁机遇：推动向未来工作转型的全球框架

W H I T EP A P E RS E P T E M B E R2 0 2 4 Contents Executive summary3 Introduction4 1 Methodology: Mapping job transitions6 1.1 Introducing a method for mapping job transitions1.2 Updated methods for a global analysis1.3 An example job transition667 2 Framework: Enabling job transitions8 2.1 Reskilling and upskilling for new opportunities2.2 Improving employee-employer matching2.3 Worker safety nets2.4 Multistakeholder collaboration to break through industry barriers8899 3 Regional analysis11 3.1 Global trends: Transitions to the Jobs of Tomorrow3.2 East Asia and the Pacific3.3 Europe3.4 Latin America and the Caribbean3.5 Middle East and North Africa3.6 North America3.7 South Asia3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa1112151821232527 Conclusion29 Contributors30 Endnotes31 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. © 2024 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Executive summary The global labour market is in the midst ofa profound transformation. As technologicalbreakthroughs, geoeconomic shifts and the needfor an equitable climate transition disrupt traditionalemployment patterns, the ability of workers totransition into new roles is becoming essentialfor maintaining employment and achieving socialmobility, and is increasingly seen as a criticalmechanism for optimizing economic productivityand enhancing individual well-being. and the Pacific, Europe, Latin America and theCaribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, NorthAmerica, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Foreach region, we examine data on job transitionsfrom online job postings and highlight specific jobtransitions that characterize the region’s potentialfor successfully adapting to the labour-markettransformation. Importantly, we find three notabletrends observed across all regions: the rapid growthof transitions into digital and ICT (Information andCommunications Technology)-based jobs, thehigh frequency of transitions into human-centrichealth and care jobs, and the rise of transitions intobusiness services roles. With adequate support measures, many morejob transitions could be taking place – leading notonly to much needed continuous employment forworkers, but also to better jobs that pay highersalaries and offer the security provided by growinglabour-market demand. By proactively facilitatingthese transitions, economies can better align laboursupply with demand, reduce unemployment andenable workers to secure higher-paying, morestable jobs in growth sectors. Moreover, proactivejob transitions help mitigate the adverse effects ofjob displacement, ensuring that workers are notleft behind in the face of economic change but areinstead positioned to thrive in the new economy. The paper builds on earlier World EconomicForum work to provide a global framework forkey stakeholders in business and government tofacilitate job transitions, highlighting the need for:(1) reskilling and upskilling for new opportunities; (2)improving employee-employer matching; (3) workersafety nets; and (4) multistakeholder collaborationto break through industry barriers. It alsoprovides case studies specific to each region thatdemonstrate existing initiatives and programmesthat support and enable worker transitions. Thesecase studies were collected from both the privateand public sectors, and demonstrate successfulmultistakeholder collaboration between both. This paper’s analysis, in collaboration withLightcast, is based on empirical data from 14economies across seven global regions: East Asia Introduction Technological breakthroughs, geoeconomic shiftsand the need for an equitable transition are disruptingthe global labour market. According to data fromthe World Economic Forum’sFuture of Jobs Report2023, nearly one-quarter of all jobs globally areprojected to change by 2027, with 69 million new jobroles expected to be created and 83 million job rolesexpected to be displaced. (Figure 1) Jobs expectedto be most affected by increased technologyadoption include roles such as bank tellers, postalservice workers, cashiers and ticket clerks. Someof the projected fastest-growing jobs include rolessuch as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learningspecialists, sustainability specialists and businessintelligence analysts (Figure 2). Traditionally, job transitions were often assumedto happen “naturally” as the labour market adjustsover time. However, given the acceleratingpace of change currently seen in today’s globall