中国下一个赢家：工业技术——卧虎藏龙

Hidden Dragon This report is part of the series in which we identify the next generation of industries andcorporate winners in China.这份报告是我们系列报道的一部分，旨在识别中国下一批具有发展潜力的新兴产业以及那些能够在竞争中脱颖而出的企业。 Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com黄杰博士 +852 21232631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Crouching tiger, hidden dragon — these are the two types of future China winners inindustrial tech (Exhibit 1). The former, such as Inovance, patiently and determinedly closein on incumbent global leaders, claiming ever expanding territory for their own. The latter,instead of playing the “catching up” game, are born global leaders in emerging fields suchas advanced robotics.“卧虎藏龙”——这两种类型的企业，正是未来中国在工业技术领域中的佼佼者（见图1）。前者如 Innovance 这类企业，它们以坚韧不拔的毅力不断逼近现有的全球领导者，逐步扩大自己的市场份额；而后者则不同，它们并未选择走“追赶”的道路，而是在先进机器人技术等新兴领域直接成为全球领导者。 Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com梁伟斌博士 +852 21232666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.comDien Wang博士 +8522123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com The crouching tiger.China’s import substitution in factory automation (FA) is primarilydriven by genuinely improving technologies (Exhibit 2). In several categories, Chinesetechnologies are essentially indistinguishable from global leaders (see detailed analysishere), but the next China winners demonstrate more than that. Take Inovance as anexample, its future success is underlined by two additional traits --潜伏的“猛虎”。中国在工厂自动化领域的进口替代战略，主要是由技术水平的不断提升所推动的（见图2）。在某些领域，中国的技术水平已经与全球领先者不相上下（详细分析请参见此处），但那些真正能够在中国市场中脱颖而出的企业，还具备其他更为突出的优势。以Inovance为例，该公司未来的成功离不开另外两个关键因素…… First, it has a scalable product portfolio and coherent expansion strategy. Inovance’s FAbusiness spans nicely across the technology S-curve (Exhibit 4), with many grades ofmarket shares and technology levels to drive both short-term and long-term growth. Itis neither sitting on past success with saturating market share, nor betting on the binaryoutput of a single big expansion. More importantly, Inovance’s portfolio (motion, controller,robot, software) is highly synergetic from the technology and customer perspectives.首先，Inovance拥有可扩展的产品组合和连贯的扩张战略。其FA业务很好地覆盖了整个技术发展曲线（见图4），在市场份额和技术水平上呈现出多样化的特点，从而推动了企业的短期和长期增长。该公司既没有因市场份额饱和而固步自封，也没有单纯依赖某一次大规模扩张来获得成功。更重要的是，从技术和客户的角度来看，Inovance的产品组合（包括运动控制、控制器、机器人和软件）具有极高的协同效应。 Years ago, the expectation on Inovance was the “Chinese Yaskawa”. That expectation hasbeen decisively exceeded (Exhibit 6). With latest development in PLCs and digitization,Inovance is progressing to be the “Chinese Siemens” (Exhibit 7). Toward this goal, it has alsoembarked on the globalization journey (Exhibit 8). It’s a long journey (see here), and we likethe fact that Inovance is not just following Chinese customers abroad but also cultivatingforeign customers in their home markets.几年前，人们对Inovance的期望是让它成为“中国的安川”。如今，这一期望已经被彻底超越了（见图6）。随着PLC技术和数字化进程的不断发展，Inovance正逐渐发展成为“中国的西门子”（见图7）。为了实现这一目标，该公司还开始了全球化进程（见图8）。这是一条漫长的道路，但我们很欣慰的是，Inovance不仅将中国客户带到海外市场，还在这些国家的本土市场积极开发新客户。 Second, Inovance has demonstrated the discipline and ability of profitable growth. Ratherthan competing on price or trading margin for growth, Inovance maintains an FA margin thatis higher than global peers’ (Exhibit 10). It’s proof of company’s innovation and managementquality, and the most important characteristic of a long-term quality compounder.其次，Inovance已经证明了其在实现盈利增长方面的自律性与能力。该公司并未通过压低价格或压缩交易利润来谋求增长，而是保持了高于全球同行的利润率（见图10）。这不仅体现了该公司的创新能力与管理水平，也是成为一家长期具备优质竞争力的复合材料企业的关键所在。 The hidden dragon.Not all Chinese winners emerge from a chase. There are born leaders,typically in emerging technological fields. For example, Mech-Mind, the Chinese start-upin autonomous path planning for industrial robots, generates 40+% of revenue outsideChina and its global market share is bigger than the #2-#7 combined (Exhibit 17). Inhumanoid robots, Chinese players are among the best ones in each of the four key areasfor technology differentiation (Exhibit 19). In these new areas, China’s surprising leapfrogis enabled by: 1) a level playing field with little legacy technology gaps, 2) the substantiallylower product development cost (Exhibit 15, and see here), 3) a disproportionatelybigger base of willing customers in China (Exhibit 12), 4) an innovation culture of quickmultiplication followed by “natural selection”, and 5) targeted policy support, such as shareddata centers for humanoid robots, to remove development bottlenecks.那些“隐藏的龙”——并非所有中国的成功企业都是通过激烈的竞争脱颖而出的。有些领导者天生就具备领导才能，他们通常出现在新兴的技术领域。例如，中国初创公司Mech-Mind专注于工业机器人的自主路径规划技术，其海外收入占比超过了40%，其全球市场份额甚至超过了排名第二到第七的公司之和（见图1.7）。在人形机器人领域，中国企业在四个关键的技术差异化方面也处于领先地位（见图19）。在中国这些新兴领域中，中国之所以能够实现惊人的跨越式发展，原因如下：1）市场环境公平，几乎没有传统技术的障碍；2）产品开发成本大幅降低（见图15及相关资料）；3）中国拥有庞大的潜在客户群体；4）中国拥有鼓励快速创新并随后通过“自然选择”来筛选优秀产品的创新文化；5）政府提供了有针对性的政策支持，比如为人形机器人建设共享数据中心，以消除研发瓶颈。 DETAILS详细信息 Inovance — an example of crouching tigersWe believe Inovance’s future success is underlined by two additional traits China’s import substitution in factory automation (FA) is primarily driven by nar