中国的下一个赢家：电动垂直起降飞机的崛起

China Next Winners: The rise of eVTOL中国的下一个赢家：电动垂直起降飞机的崛起 This report is part of a series on China Next Winners in which we identify the next generationof industries and corporate winners in China.这份报告属于“中国未来的赢家”系列报道的一部分，旨在挖掘中国下一代具有发展潜力的产业和企业。 Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com尼尔·贝弗里奇，博士电话：+852 2123 2648邮箱：neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com 09-3009-3009-3009-3009-3009-3009-30The global urban air mobility (UAM) market is set to take off at a 30% CAGR overthe next five years, with China poised to lead this revolution.While the traditionalhelicopter market commands a total addressable market (TAM) of US$30-40bn with1,000-1,500 annual deliveries, the eVTOL/UAM sector is on track to far surpass thesefigures. Over the past three years, annual eVTOL orders have consistently hit 3,000-4,000units, reflecting robust and sustained demand. By Q3 2025, cumulative eVTOL orderstopped 17,500 units, a 16% jump from the previous year, with China accounting for 1,600全球城市空中出行（UAM）市场预计在未来五年内将以30%的年复合增长率实现快速增长，而中国有望成为这场革命的主要推动者。虽然传统直升机市场的总可寻址市场规模约为300亿至400亿美元，年交付量在1,000至1,500架之间，但电动垂直起降飞行器/城市空中出行领域的市场规模有望远超这些数字，反映出该领域持续且强劲的市场需求。截至2025年第三季度，电动垂直起降飞行器的累计订单量已超过17,500架，较上一年增长了16%；其中，中国在今年新增的2,500架订单中占据了1,600架的份额。 Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.comBrian Ho，CFA电话：+852 2123 2615邮箱：brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com 09-30Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.comHengliangZhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Chinese eVTOL OEMs are at the forefront of the certification process, with twomodels securing all necessary certificates already.After three years of rigorous testing,EHang’s EH216-S secured its Type Certificate (TC) from CAAC in October 2023, unlockingfull certification by March 2025. AutoFlight’s cargo-centric V2000CG acceleratedcertification with spending just 18 months to secure the TC, achieving a world-first 2-toneVTOL offshore oil platform operation in August 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders Joby andArcher aim for TC by year-end, with other Chinese OEMs targeting 2026.中国的电动垂直起降飞行器制造商正处于认证流程的最前沿，其中已有两款机型获得了所有必要的认证。经过三年的严格测试，EHang的EH216-S于2023年10月获得了中国民航局的型证，预计将在2025年3月前完成全部认证流程。而专注于货运领域的AutoFlight公司，仅用了18个月就获得了型证，并于2025年8月实现了全球首例使用电动垂直起降飞行器在海上石油平台作业的案例。与此同时，美国的Joby和Archer公司也计划在年底前获得型证，其他中国制造商则将目标定在2026年。 Shenzhen’s ambitious plan to build over 1,200 takeoff and landing points (vs. 70 forhelicopters) stood out as a key highlight in policy this year.China first introduced theconcept of the low-altitude economy in its national policies in 2021. Significant regulatorystrides followed in 2023 with interim UAV flight management measures, national airspaceclassification, and UAV operation rules. In 2024, China advanced further by establishingeVTOL pilot zones in six major cities. Shenzhen’s 2025 blueprint to develop 1,200+ takeoffand landing points, 1,000+ commercial low-altitude routes, and express delivery servicescovering 70% of its population by 2026 represents a transformative leap in infrastructuredevelopment.深圳提出的建设超过1,200个起降点的宏伟计划，成为今年中国政策领域的亮点之一。2021年，中国首次在其国家政策中提出了“低空经济”的概念。2023年，中国在相关法规制定方面取得了重大进展，推出了无人机飞行管理临时措施、国家空域分类制度以及无人机操作规范。2024年，中国进一步推进了低空经济发展，已在六个主要城市设立了电动垂直起降飞行器的试点区域。深圳制定的2025年发展计划旨在到2026年建成1,200多个起降点、1,000多条商业低空航线，并提供能够覆盖该市70%人口的快递服务——这一计划标志着中国在基础设施建设领域实现了跨越性的飞跃。 Advances in battery technology from electric vehicles have been a key enabler foreVTOL development.Improvements in battery energy density and power density over thepast few years have helped eVTOL become a reality. Battery energy density is now sufficientto power aircraft carrying 2-4- persons over distances of 300km. Batteries will only getbetter as technology improves. Chinese battery manufacturers lead with cost advantagesdriven by deep domestic supply chains, massive scale, and strong government backing,powering the eVTOL industry’s rapid ascent.电动汽车领域电池技术的进步为电动垂直起降飞行器的研发提供了重要支持。过去几年中，电池的能量密度和功率密度得到了显著提升，这使得电动垂直起降飞行器终于成为了现实。如今，电池的能量密度已经足以驱动载有2至4名乘客的飞行器在3万公里的范围内飞行。随着技术的不断进步，电池的性能还会进一步提升。中国电池制造商凭借其深厚的国内供应链、庞大的生产规模以及强有力的政府支持，在成本方面具有明显优势，这推动了电动垂直起降飞行器产业的快速发展。 09-3009-3009-3009-3009-3009-3009-302025 marks a pivotal inflection point for eVTOL orders in China, driven by regulatoryadvances and the anticipated wave of Type Certificates.EHang leads with a backlog of1,500 units. Other major players are securing blockbuster deals: Volant inked a US$1.75bncontract for 500 VE25-100 eVTOLs with Pan Pacific for the deployment in Thainland andthe Maldives, while TCab signed US$1bn MoU with UAE’s Autocraft for 350 E20 aircraft.In terms of order value, we estimate that Volant leads with the largest total order worth US$3.5bn, followed by Aerofugia (US$1.6bn) and AutoFlight (US$1.2bn).随着相关技术的不断进步以及各类型式认证的陆续颁发，EHang在电动垂直起降飞行器领域仍处于领先地位，其现有订单量已达1,500架。其他主要企业也纷纷斩获了重大合作项目：Volant与泛太平洋航空签署了价值17.5亿美元的合同，为泰国和马尔代夫提供500架VE25-100型电动垂直起降飞行器；而TCab则与阿联酋的Autocraft公司达成了价值10亿美元的谅解备忘录，计划采购350架E20型电动垂直起降飞行器。从订单总额来看，Volant以35亿美元的总订单额位居榜首，紧随其后的是Aerofugia（16亿美元）和AutoFlight（12亿美元）。 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE伯恩斯坦计数器表 INVESTMEN