越南：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；越南执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT;AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FOR VIETNAM Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2024Article IV consultation withVietnam, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember 8,2025consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation with Vietnam. •The Staff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 8,2025,following discussions that ended onJuly24,2025, with the officials of Vietnam on economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonAugust 20, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by the Executive DirectorforVietnam. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00per printed copy International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithVietnam FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Vietnam’s economy rebounded strongly in 2024 and early 2025. However, the outlook isconstrained by high global uncertainty on trade andeconomic policies. •There is room for greater fiscal support if economic growth slows down markedly, whilespace for monetary easing is limited. Allowing more flexibility in the exchange rate andstrengthening the resilience of the financial sector will be important. •Implementation of the ambitious reform agenda and infrastructure improvements presentsan opportunity to raise medium-term growth and reduce external vulnerabilities. Washington, DC–September15, 2025:On September 8, 2025, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1withVietnam. The Vietnamese economy rebounded strongly in 2024, growing at 7.1 percent backed byrobust exports, resilient foreign direct investment, and supportive policies. This momentumcontinued into the first half of 2025, with economic activity expanding by 7.5 percent (y/y)thanks to export frontloading,fastercredit growth, and large one-off government spending.Inflation accelerated somewhat in recent months, reaching 3.6 percenty/yin June, butremains below the target. The current account surplus reached arecord 6.6 percent of GDP in2024. The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained byelevated global uncertainty on trade policies and economic environment. Economic growth isprojected to slow to6.5 percent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026 given the full yeareffect of thenewU.S. tariffs (announced in July) and unwinding of most of the one-off 2025government stimulus. Downside risks are high. A further escalation in global trade tensions or a tightening of globalfinancial conditions could weaken further exports and investment. Domestically, financialstress could re-emerge from tighter financial conditions and high corporate indebtedness. Onthe upside, successfully implementing infrastructure projects and structural reforms couldsignificantly boost medium-term growth. Ifglobal trade tensions subside, the economic outlookwould improve. Executive Board Assessment2 Executive Directorswelcomed that, despite increased external and domestic volatility,economic growth has been remarkably resilient helped by supportive policies. Directorscautioned, however, that the economy’s export-led growth model faces increasing challengesfrom rapidly evolving and uncertain global trade policies, population aging, tightening globalfinancial conditions, and climate change. They emphasized that policies should focus onmaintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while promoting reforms tosustainrobust, diversified, and stable medium-term growth. Directors generally agreed that the policy mix should remain flexible to respond to afast-evolving and uncertain economic environment. Given available fiscal space, fiscal policycould be more prominent in prudently supporting economic activity, especially with temporaryand targeted support if needed. Directors underscored that the room to ease monetary policyis very limited, and inflation and FX risks should be closely monitored given still buoyanteconomic and credit growth. They stressed that greaterexchange rate flexibility is critical tofacilitate the adjustment to external shocks, and underlined the benefits of accelerating themodernization o