野火风险：一个具有多方面解决方案的复杂问题

Wildfire risk: acomplex problemwith a multifacetedsolution Executive summary There’s an increasingly urgent need for communities, governments andfinancial institutions–particularly insurers-to address wildfire risks. The LAwildfires are one of the most expensive catastrophe losses ever recorded.Meanwhile, Europe and other regions have grappled with unprecedentedwildfires burning millions of acres, emitting hundreds of megatons of carbon,and exposing significant sums of value at risk. The challenge of reducing wildfire risk is often multifaceted. On the one hand,as the planet continues to warm, the environmental conditions necessary forwildfires to ignite and promulgate will become more prevalent. On the other, it’simportant to understand that approximately 75% of wildfires globally can betraced to human activity, underscoring the key role people play in this issue. While there’s a clear need for greater investment in resiliency (asthisPwCpublication notes), the nuances and challenges associated with wildfire riskmerit dedicated focus and unique interventions. Understanding thecomplicated nature of the problem can inform integrated strategies includinglocalized mitigation to reduce risk, innovative insurance that prices and rewardsrisk reduction, and technology that helps detect, forecast and coordinateresponse. This paper summarizes the wildfire challenge and offers solutions set for manyinsurers. It first explores the breadth of the issue, including historical impacts,the risks posed by compounding hazards, and why wildfire risk is hard to modeland insure—including WUI exposure growth, human-driven ignition, andmodeling constraints. It then outlines an integrated solution that helps connecton-the-ground mitigation and adaptation, tech-enabled monitoring, andinsurance innovation. The call to action for insurers: •Take steps to move from wildfire risk transfer to wildfire risk mitigation•Broaden insurance solutions with innovative products and forward-lookingrisk metrics•Leverage new technologies and data at the property, parcel, and communitylevel to develop more precise underwriting•Collaborate across sectors (e.g., banks, governments, real estate investors) todevelop innovative risk mitigation approaches and financing solutions The integrated problem of wildfire risk What hashappened:historicalimpacts Wildfires have a variety of damaging effects, including environmentaldestruction, increases in human respiratory illnesses and substantial economiclosses. Globally, from 2001 to 2024, wildfires have burned more than twice asmuch tree cover each year as they did in the twenty years prior (MacCarthy etal., 2025). Financially, a 2023 congressional report estimates that wildfires havean annual economic cost between $394 to $893 billion in the United Statesalone, highlighting the significant value at risk from this peril (Joint EconomicCommittee). This estimate encompasses diminished real estate value, exposureto wildfire smoke, income loss, watershed costs, insurance payouts, timber loss,uninsured property damage and electricity costs. $394B–$893Bestimated annualeconomic cost of wildfires in the U.S.(2023 congressional report) This problem is not isolated to the United States; Brazil, Bolivia, Russia, andCanada recently experienced nearly unprecedented wildfire events. Major fireshave also recently occurred in both tropical and boreal forests for the first time inrecorded history. Compounding the challenge is the fact that there is no one-size-fits-all solution for reducing wildfire risk because of numerous variables,including diversity of fuels, ignition sources, land-use patterns and suppressiontechniques. In addition, increasingly volatile climate conditions such as heat,drought, fuel dryness, wind and wet and dry cycles amplify wildfire risk, creatingcascading impacts that stretch far beyond property damage. Recent wildfire activity has included: United States—The 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, California burned over150,000 acres, displaced 83% of the city’s population, caused 85 fatalities, andresulted in roughly $12.5 billion in insured economic losses (Hanideh, et al.,2021). In January 2025, the Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles Countyburned nearly 40,000 acres in total. Preliminary damage inspection and remote-sensing estimates indicated more than 12,000 structures were damaged ordestroyed, with total economic losses estimated at $76-131 billion (multiplesources, 2025). Europe—Greece’s Evros wildfire in August 2023 burned about 230,000 acres,the largest single recorded fire in the EU since statistics began being kept(Xanthopoulos, et al., 2025). More broadly, the eight months ended August 2025have seen wildfires burn 2.5 million acres in the EU, an eight-month record since2006, reflecting both intense Mediterranean seasons and emerging northernhotspots (Pol, 2025). Australia—The 2019-20 “Black Summer” wildfires burned nearly 47 millionacres of land, caused billions of dollars in econo