阿尔及利亚：选定问题

SELECTED ISSUES This Selected Issues paper onAlgeriawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onAugust 26, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. ALGERIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartment Prepared ByGian Plebani(MCD),WilliamGbohoui(AFR),and Charles Vellutini (FAD). With support from Sofia CernaRubinstein and Rodrigo Huguet. CONTENTS ENHANCING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN ALGERIA ___________________3 A. Algeria’s Monetary Policy Framework ________________________________________________3B. Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Transmission in Algeria _________________10C. Structural Impediments to Monetary Policy Transmission in Algeria _______________13D. Policy Implications _________________________________________________________________15 FIGURES 1. Oil Prices and Liquidity Management in Algeria______________________________________42. Bank of Algeria’s Monetary Policy Operations, NFA and Inflation 2002-24 ___________53. Credit to the Government is Rising___________________________________________________54. Interest Rates and Bank Liquidity_____________________________________________________65. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels _____________________________________________86. Transmission on the Interbank Rate, the Exchange Rate, and Inflation _______________97. Impulse-Response Functions of Exchange Rate, Inflation and NFA_________________128. Impulse Response Functions of Structural VAR for Monetary Policy Transmission _14 APPENDIX I. Econometric Results ________________________________________________________________17 References____________________________________________________________________________24 STRENGTHENING THE REVENUE MOBILIZATION STRATEGY _____________________25 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________25B. Estimating Algeria’s Tax Potential and the Scope for Additional Tax Revenues_____26 C. Looking Forward: Reform Options _________________________________________________________31D. Conclusion: Towards a Domestic Resource Mobilization Strategy _________________________38 FIGURES 1. Share of Oil and Gas in Revenue and International Comparisons___________________________262. Algeria’s Non-Hydrocarbon Tax Potential (2021-2022), Model 1 ___________________________283. Algeria’s Non-Hydrocarbon Tax Potential (2021), Model 2 _________________________________294. Revenue Composition (Averages over 2018-2024) _________________________________________305. VAT – International Comparisons of C-Efficiency ___________________________________________326. VAT – Evolution of C-Efficiency (Algeria) ___________________________________________________327. PIT and CIT Revenue _______________________________________________________________________358. PIT Rates in Algeria and Comparator Countries ____________________________________________379. Prioritization of Reforms ___________________________________________________________________39 TABLES 1. Excises Rates (Selection)____________________________________________________________________332. PIT Indicators and Comparators ____________________________________________________________36 References____________________________________________________________________________________41 ENHANCING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION INALGERIA1 Algeria is actively pursuing reforms to modernize its monetary policy framework, with a focus onenhancing the role of interest rates in achieving price stability. The new monetary and banking law(MBL) provides the necessary operational and organization tools while the authorities are improvingthe capacity in macroeconomic forecasting. This paper analyses the monetary policy transmission inAlgeria. The results suggest that the interest rate channel is relatively weak as the BA focuses onliquidity operations. A focus on interest rate tools, financial sector reform and central bankindependence would help to improve monetary policy transmission in Algeria. Section A describes themonetary policy framework and the medium-term macroeconomic environment in Algeria. Section Bcontains empirical analysis and the results. Section C describes the current structural impediments to amore effective monetary policy transmission and section D concludes with policy recommendations toenhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission. A.Algeria’s Monetary Policy Framework Macroeconomic Background 1.Hydrocarbon exports have been the main determinant of bank liquidity in Algeriasince the 2000s.The period between 20