2025年日本黄金投资者洞察：黄金机遇

Contents A brief look at Japan’s macro environment4 The 2025 Japanese investor insights5 Conclusion10 Appendix 111 Appendix 212 Survey methodology12Main findings referenced in the main content 12 Gold’s potential amongJapanese investors? Against a backdrop of persistent inflation and challenging growth prospects,Japanese investors are reassessing their portfolios. Gold is emerging as highlyrelevant amid its record-shattering rally in recent years and the current inflationaryenvironment in Japan. Despite this, gold remains under-present in Japaneseinvestor portfolios, raising these key questions for financial advisors, institutionalinvestors, and product providers: What are the barriers to gold investment for Japanese investors? How can gold’s share in investor portfolios be expanded? This report examines these dynamics at a pivotal moment. As the Bank of Japannavigates a delicate policy shift away from ultra-low interest rates, and inflationarypressure mounts, gold’s traditional role as a store of value is gaining renewedrelevance. Could gold’s strategic role untap the potential among Japaneseportfolios – currently heavily reliant on stocks and bonds? In this report we analyseownership trends, motivations, attitudes and barriers, to provide actionable insightsthat will help to capture opportunities for gold among Japanese investors. intensified, potentially leading to further inflationpressure. A brief look at Japan’smacro environment Chart2:Both inflation and wage growth reachedmulti-decade highs* Japan’s economy rebounded in Q2 after a contractionat the start of 2025 (Chart1). The 0.5% q/q growthwas mainly helped by front-running exports before theUS tariff taking effect.1Meanwhile, thanks to risingwages, private consumption growth accelerateddespite higher costs. Future growth is, however, somewhat clouded. Thecombination of a strong yen – should its strengthpersist – and slower growth globally could posechallenges to Japanese exports; not to mention theeffect of higher tariffs imposed by the US in earlyAugust. This means that it is difficult for “net exports”to support growth again going forward as they did inQ2. The sudden resignation of the former PrimeMinister also casts political and policy uncertaintiesover growth.2 Chart1:Japan’s GDPrebounded in Q2 Japan’s GDP q/q growth and different sectors’contribution* Following the 0.25% hike in rates earlier this year, theBank of Japan (BOJ) has signalled a cautious stance:inflation is pressing higher while growth faces variouschallenges. The BoJ’s most recent outlook furtherraised expectations for inflation and maintained acautious attitude towards growth (Chart3). Meanwhile, inflation in Japan has been elevated forsome time (Chart2). In July, Japan’s core inflation,excluding fresh food and energy, rose further to 3.4%,the highest since January 2024. This is against a periodduring which wages have grown at a pace unseen formore than three decades amid surging living costs.Meanwhile, the chronic labour shortage issue has alsocontributed to rising wages.3And as we noted inaprevious publication, the wage-price spiral has Chart4:Higher inflation,higherbond-equitycorrelation in Japan Chart5:Gold continues to shine in 2025 Various asset performance in JPY* 3-year rolling correlation between Japanese equitiesand bonds* As we havenoted previously, this macro backdropmay see the BoJ continue to adjust its monetary policy,inducing further volatility and weakness in theperformance of Japanese government bonds (JGB).Moreover, the correlation between Japanese equitiesand JGBs has increased with local inflationarypressure, further limiting the possibilities open to localinvestors in the equity market (Chart4). The 2025 Japaneseinvestor insights Gold is under-represented in Japaneseportfolios When asked about the type of investment currentlyheld, a large majority of Japanese investors (73%)indicated that they own stocks and shares (Chart6,p6). Gold remains under-represented: on a net basis,only 23% of our sample currently include gold in theirportfolios. Results of a more recent, similar Japaneseinvestor survey, which was done in partnership withState Street Investment Management , backed upthese findings: only 28% of survey respondents ownedgold in their portfolios (Chart14, p12). Japanese investors are familiar with diverging assetperformance (Chart5). Notably, following a stunning40% return in 2024, gold in yen has continued tooutperform other assets, rising 23% so far in 2025.Risks and a weaker dollar, among other factors, havesupported gold’s continued strength so far in 2025.Looking ahead, we believe fundamentals may remainbeneficial for gold, withuncertainties coming fromvarious economic scenarios. After such strong runs in recent years, we wanted tofind out whether gold has grabbed the attention oflocal investors, and we sought to identify the drivers of– and barriers to – investing in it. To do this wecommissioned a global market res