联邦_保留_评论_UPDATE_September _FOMC_preview _风险管理

UPDATE: September FOMCpreview: Risk management We expect the FOMC to cut policy rates by 25bp, to4.00-4.25%, amid rising downside risks to employment. Wethink the SEP will show little change in economic projections,but expect the dot plot to show three 25bp cuts this year, onein 2026, and one more in 2027. US Economics Research Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, US UPDATE This publication is an update to 'Federal Reserve Commentary: September FOMCpreview: Risk management', originally published on 12 Sep 2025 at 15:41 EDT, to correct ourexpectation for the fed funds rateafterthis week's FOMC meeting in a couple of places to4.00-4.25%. Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US •The FOMC will likely cut policy rates by 25bp, to 4.00-4.25% on September 17, with thecommittee judging that the downside risks to achieving its employment mandate are rising,given the weaker-than-expected pace of payroll gains and amid rising but still-moderateinflation prints. We expect at least one dissent, from Miran if he is confirmed, and Waller coulddissent too, with both favoring larger rate cuts. Colin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US •We expect the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to show little change ineconomic projections, other than upward revisions to real GDP growth and a smalldownward revision to 2025 inflation.However, we expect the median dots to show three25bp cuts this year, to 3.6%, one cut in 2026 and one in 2027, as well as an unchangedlonger-run dot at 3.0%. •At the press conference, we expect Chair Powell to emphasize that downside risks toemployment are rising, amid a significant slowing in job gains and an increase in theunemployment rate, even though the latter remains low. We expect him to mention thatslower job gains reflect in part immigration restrictions and aging. We also expect him toreiterate the need to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. •We retain our baseline expectation that the FOMC will deliver a total of three 25bp ratecuts this year, in September, October, and December, amid a slowing pace of payrollemployment, the unemployment rate's edging up, and rising concerns about downsiderisks to employment. •FOMC participants will likely continue their discussion of the monetary policyframework,focusing on possible improvements in FOMC communication, includingenhancements to the SEP. •We do not anticipate any new announcement about the Fed's balance sheet next week. Lower rates amid downside risks to employment The FOMC will likely cut policy rates by 25bp, to 4.00-4.25% on September 17, with thecommittee judging that the downside risks to achieving its employment mandate are rising. Labor market conditions have weakened substantially since the July FOMC meeting. Nonfarm payroll employment registered a gain of only 29k in August, on a 3mma basis,following a substantial downward revision that came with the July employment report.Furthermore, this week's release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics's (BLS) preliminarybenchmark revision for employment indicated that payrolls gains would ultimately be reviseddown by about 75k per month for April 2024-March 2025 . Meanwhile, the unemployment ratecontinued to edge up in August, to 4.3%, showing little labor market slack so far. Chair Powelland other FOMC participants understand that much of thesofteningin the pace of payrollemployment reflects a significant reduction in labor force growth due to tighter immigrationrestrictions and aging (as emphasized in Two mighty headwinds). In our view, this is why we arenot seeing much of an increase in the unemployment rate. However, we think that mostparticipants will agree with Chair Powell that even if the labor market remains near fullemployment for now, downside risks to the employment side of the mandate are rising. Activity data do not suggest any imminent weakening. Incoming data since the July meetingindicate that overall economic activity has remained resilientafterthe rebound seen in Q2. Realhousehold spending accelerated in July, and income also rose on the month, pointing toresilient consumers so far in the face oftariffincreases. Incoming data for August suggestsubdued spending fundamentals. We expect FOMC participants to remain concerned about inflation. They will likely see in therecent inflation readings the imprints oftariffs,and we think they will expect inflation to risefurther in the coming months as a result. They will likely not take much comfort from the factthat survey-based measures of inflation expectations have also edged higher following thetariffannouncements in early August. The FOMC will likely continue to view the policy stance as moderately or modestly restrictive. Inall, we think risk management considerations will lead the FOMC to proceed with a series ofcuts, given the rising downside risks to employment.