世界经济碎片化背景下全球贸易中的发票货币模式

Patterns of InvoicingCurrency in Global Tradein a Fragmenting WorldEconomy Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis,Gita Gopinath, and Arnaud Mehl WP/25/178 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working PaperResearch Department Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in aFragmenting World Economy Prepared by Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis,Gita Gopinath, and Arnaud Mehl* Authorized for distribution by Pierre-Olivier GourinchasSeptember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel dataset on global tradeinvoicing currency and examines recent pattern shifts with a focus on geopolitical alignment. Using data for 132countries from 1990 to 2023—including new coverage of the Chinese renminbi—we document five keyfindings. First, the US dollar remains dominant, with global invoicing shares broadly stable. Second, renminbiuse has grown steadily and expanded beyond Asia, though it remains modest. Third, countries notgeopolitically aligned with the US continue to rely on the dollar, though this reliance has declined in a few keyeconomies. Fourth, since 2021, the correlation between the use of a given invoicing currency and thegeopolitical distance to its issuer has become more negative, reflecting growing polarization. Fifth, there is norobust evidence consistent with effective policy initiatives to reduce dollar reliance in oil exports. These findingshighlight the resilience of dominant currencies and suggest emerging fragmentation in invoicing patterns alonggeopolitical lines. Patterns of Invoicing Currency inGlobal Trade in a FragmentingWorld Economy Prepared by Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, GeorgiosGeorgiadis, Gita Gopinath, and Arnaud Mehl1 Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade in afragmenting world economy∗ Emine Boz†International Monetary FundGeorgios Georgiadis¶European Central Bank September 5, 2025 Abstract This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel dataset on global tradeinvoicing currency and examines recent pattern shifts with a focus on geopolitical align-ment.Using data for 132 countries from 1990 to 2023—including new coverage of theChinese renminbi—we document five key findings.First, the US dollar remains domi-nant, with global invoicing shares broadly stable. Second, renminbi use has grown steadilyand expanded beyond Asia, though it remains modest. Third, countries not geopoliticallyaligned with the US continue to rely on the dollar, though this reliance has declined in afew key economies. Fourth, since 2021, the correlation between the use of a given invoicingcurrency and the geopolitical distance to its issuer has become more negative, reflectinggrowing polarization.Fifth, there is no robust evidence consistent with effective policyinitiatives to reduce dollar reliance in oil exports. These findings highlight the resilienceof dominant currencies and suggest emerging fragmentation in invoicing patterns alonggeopolitical lines. Keywords:Trade invoicing currency, dominant-currency paradigm, geopolitical alignment.JEL-Classification: F14, F31, F44. 1Introduction Most global trade is invoiced in just a few currencies—primarily the US dollar and, to a lesser extent,the euro—regardless of the countries involved in the transaction (Goldberg & Tille 2008, Gopinath2015, Boz et al. 2022). This empirical regularity has prompted a shift in international macroeconomicsaway from the traditional open-economy framework, in which export prices are set in the producer’scurrency, toward a dominant-currency paradigm.In this framework, export prices are typically setin a single dominant currency, most often the US dollar (Gopinath et al. 2020, Gopinath & Itskhoki2022). Dominant-currency pricing implies markedly different responses to exchange rate fluctuationscompared to producer-currency pricing, with important implications for international spillovers, opti-mal monetary and fiscal policy, and international policy coordination (Egorov & Mukhin 2023, Basuet al. forthcoming). While earlier literature has firmly established the dominance of a few currencies in global tradeinvoicing over recent decades, several secular trends and distinct events since 2020 have significantlyreshaped the global trade landscape.In particular, the rise of China and other emerging marketeconomies, the COVID-19 pandemic with associated supply chain disruptions, and