2025年全球汽车供应商研究

"Stagformation": Trends, outlook,and recommendations to navigatestagnation and transformation Managementsummary The global automotive supplier industry is facing a challenging marketlandscape, clouded by stagnating growth, geopolitical uncertainty,rising competition, and mounting cost pressures from prolonged technologicaltransformations. In essence, what we currently observe in the automotivesupplier industry can be aptly described as a period of "stagformation", wherestagnating volume growth is coupled with the urgent need to transformestablished business models. The financial performance of automotive suppliers reflects this challengingsentiment, with EBIT margins remaining 2 percentage points below pre-Covidlevels. While there was a temporary stabilization in 2023, forecasts indicate afurther decline in 2024, with industry averages expected to drop to 4.7%. Weexpect profitability challenges to persist and likely intensify in the coming years,driven by five key trends: 1) stagnating global sales volume, 2) slower adoption ofbattery electric vehicles (BEVs), 3) rising software costs and increasing customerdemand for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and connectivityfeatures, 4) swelling economic and competitive pressures in China, and 5)resurging geopolitical tensions and global trade barriers. To remain competitive in today's dynamic automotive landscape and preparefor the future, we recommend suppliers optimize their portfolios throughpartnerships, streamline their product offerings, and focus on strategictechnologies. Western suppliers must prioritize structural cost improvementsto stay competitive amid rising pressure from Chinese players. Technology andcost leaders should focus on strategic, well-executed expansion to sustain theiradvantage. Given the accelerating geopolitical dynamics and market volatility,executing clear and disciplined regional strategies is crucial. These strategieswill be essential for ensuring resilience, enhancing profitability, and improvingcapital structures. Contents 4.7% Estimatedindustry-levelEBIT marginin 2024 67% Expectedmarket shareof local OEMs inChina in 2030 111 mProductionovercapacitiesin theautomotiveindustry,2020-2030 Getting started The past couple of years have been tough for the automotive supplier industry. The post-Covid bounce fizzled out, with lackluster growth and increasing cost, regulatory, and supplychallenges. Although we saw a certain stabilization and recovery until the first half of 2024, theautomotive environment became increasingly challenging throughout the year. The electricvehicle market is experiencing a slowdown and overcapacity, structural shifts, and risingcosts are intensifying competition. We see five overarching trends in the overall automotivemarket that have specific consequences for the supplier industry: 1.Global production is stagnating, with Europe recovering most slowly, while China andSouth Asia are the main drivers of modest global volume growth. 2.BEV sales are stagnating in Europe and North America as subsidies are withdrawn, buthybrid vehicles are experiencing a resurgence. 3.Software-defined vehicles (SDVs) are expected to become increasingly dominant in thecoming years, impacting both OEMs and OESs. 4.The market environment in China is getting even tougher with fierce competition amongOEMs, resulting in a further margin squeeze. 5.Accelerating geopolitical dynamics are reshaping global trade among core automotiveregions through tariffs and subsidies aimed at fostering local economic competitiveness. To navigate the complexitiesof 'stagformation', automotivesuppliers must prioritize strategicpartnerships and optimize theirportfolios to remain competitive ina rapidly evolving marketlandscape." Felix Mogge, Senior Partner, Roland Berger Automotive state of health Recovery has halted, with challenges particularly in Europe andfor BEVs The unprecedented disruptions of the past few years, from Covid-19 to semiconductorshortages and heightened geopolitical tensions, have sent the automotive industry into asteep decline. Our analysis shows that after a certain recovery in 2023, 2024 was marked byaccelerating challenges once again. In this section we examine some of the key performanceindicators of the supplier industry, which are fundamental to their financial performance,as examined in the subsequent chapter 3. Global vehicle production: Production volumes are projectedto gradually recover only towards the end of this decade Global vehicle production, which dropped to 73 million units in 2020, is expected to exceed96 million units in 2030. Forecasts suggest that pre-Covid peak levels will not be reachedbefore 2028. The shift in powertrain technology from internal combustion engines (ICE) tobattery electric vehicles (BEVs) continues to play a key role in this growth. Despite the uniquechallenges currently faced in BEV production, it remains a significant factor in shaping theindustry’s growth traje