波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的房地产市场（英）

The Real Estate Market inBosnia and Herzegovina Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adrian Music SIP/2025/123 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 29, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/253 2025SEP IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department The Real Estate Market in Bosnia and HerzegovinaPrepared by Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adrian Music Authorized for distribution by David AmaglobeliSeptember 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/253. ABSTRACT:This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes recent developments in the real estate market inBosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on housing price dynamics, financial stability implications, and policyresponses. Housing prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina have increased sharply in recent years, mirroring trendsacross the region. Despite significant increases in the House Price Index and strong private credit growth,systemic risks remain contained due to the relatively low share of mortgages in banks’ portfolios and modesthousehold indebtedness. The SIP highlights that systematic monitoring of housing market and credit indicatorsis necessary to detect vulnerabilities early and ensure a timely and effective policy response to potential realestate market shocks. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS The Real Estate Market in BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina Prepared by Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adrian Music1 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adrian Music CONTENTS THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA______________________2 A. The Role of the Real Estate Market in Financial Stability ____________________________2B. Macroprudential Policy and the Real Estate Market_________________________________3C. (Residential) Real Estate Developments in BiH and the Region _____________________4D. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Developments in the Mortgage Segment ___________________________________________82. Deposit and Lending Interest Rate Dynamics ______________________________________10 References ____________________________________________________________________________13 THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN BOSNIA ANDHERZEGOVINA1 Housing prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) have been rising rapidly in recent years, mirroringtrends in the broader region. While the House Price Index (HPI) and private credit growth haveincreased significantly, financial stability risks remain contained due to the relatively low share ofmortgage lending in banks' portfolios and modest levels of household indebtedness. Nonetheless,authorities should remain vigilant and systematically monitor a broad set of housing market and creditindicators to detect potential vulnerabilities early. The authorities should accelerate theimplementation of borrower- and capital-based tools—such as loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits, and the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB)—and improve coordinationamong financial stability institutions to ensure a timely and effective policy response. A.The Role of the Real Estate Market in Financial Stability 1.Residential real estate plays a key role in financial stability due to its importance forhousehold finances.Housing is typically the largest asset for most households, while mortgagesrepresent their most significant liability. Changes in house prices directly influence householdwealth, shaping consumption and investment decisions. When property values rise, householdsexperience a wealth effect, increasing spending and supporting economic growth. Conversely,declining house prices can erode household balance sheets, reducing consumer confidence andleading to lower spending, which can amplify economic downturns. Moreover, the housing market’sperformance is closely tied to the banking sector, given that mortgage lending constitutes asubstantial portion of financial institutions’ loan portfolios. A downturn in the real estate sector canlead to higher default rates, weakening bank balance sheets and restricting credit availability,thereby exacerbating financial instability. As a case in point, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)was largely triggered by excessive mortgage lending, particularly in the subprime segment, whichled to a housing bubble. When house prices collapsed, widespread mortgage defaults resulted insevere losses for financial institutions, triggering a banking crisis and a deep global recession. 2.Real estate is closely monitored by the authorities respon