拉脱维亚共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonthe Republic of Latviawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJuly31, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Gianluigi Ferrucci, Bingjie Hu, Keyra Primus, andCan Ugur (all EUR) ENSURING ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE PENSIONS IN LATVIA _________________3 A. Pension System Overview___________________________________________________________3B. An Assessment of Pension Adequacy _______________________________________________6C. Pension Projections _________________________________________________________________7D. Conclusions and Recommendations _______________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Asset Composition of Pension Plans ________________________________________________62. At-Risk-of-Poverty Rate of Population ______________________________________________63. Benefit Ratio and Replacement Rate ________________________________________________84. Implied Pension Expenditures, Fiscal Balance, and Public Debt Under DifferentBenefit Ratio (BR) Scenarios ___________________________________________________________95. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Under Pillar I vs Pillar II_____________________________106. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Scenarios___________________________________________12 References____________________________________________________________________________15 ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, FIRM DYNAMICS, AND PRODUCTIVITY IN LATVIA __17 A. Latvia’s Productivity Challenge_____________________________________________________17B. The Labor Productivity Growth Decomposition Exercise ___________________________20C. Discussion of the Results___________________________________________________________23D. Policy Implications _________________________________________________________________25 BOX 1. Firm Dynamism and Productivity Growth __________________________________________19 FIGURES 1. TFP Growth Decomposition ________________________________________________________________182. Variance of Marginal Revenue Product of Capital (MRPK) __________________________________183. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Latvian Firms ____________________________214. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Estonian Firms ___________________________225. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Lithuanian Firms _________________________236. Labor Productivity Distribution of Entrant Firms____________________________________________247. Employment Share of Micro Firms and That of Young Firms _______________________________258. Firm Entry Rates ____________________________________________________________________________269. Collateral-to-Loan Ratios___________________________________________________________________26 References____________________________________________________________________________________28 MODERNIZING LATVIA’S ELECTRICITY SECTOR THROUGH CLOSER EU INTEGRATION30 A. Background: Electricity Demand, Supply, and Prices _______________________________________30B. Benefits of a More Integrated Electricity Market ___________________________________________33C. Macroeconomic Costs of High Electricity Prices____________________________________________37D. Conclusions ________________________________________________________________________________38 FIGURES 1. Electricity Consumption ____________________________________________________________________302. Electricity Generation_______________________________________________________________________313. Electricity Consumption Covered by Local Generation and Net Imports____________________324. Electricity Prices and Volatility______________________________________________________________325. Electricity Price-Setting Technology ________________________________________________________336. Fragmentation in the Electricity Market ____________________________________________________347. Energy Market Integration and Required Investments in Storage __________________________358. Renewable Capacity Factors________________________________________________________________369. Firm-Level Data Estimation for Electricity Price Level and Volatility_________________________38 References____________________________________________________________________________________42 ANNEX I. Regression Tables___________________________________________________________________________39 ENSURING ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE PENSIONSIN LATVIA1 Latvia has a three-pillar pension system which combines an earnings-related public