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通过更紧密的欧盟一体化实现拉脱维亚电力部门的现代化：拉脱维亚共和国

2025-10-07 国际货币基金组织绿毛水怪

Latvia’s electricity consumption is modest but growing, driven by income growth and service sector expansion, with per capita consumption remaining low compared to the EU average. The country relies heavily on local generation, primarily hydroelectric power (56%), supplemented by other renewables (wind, solar, biomass) and natural gas (24%), but still faces an annual production shortfall of 1 TWh covered by imports. This green mix enhances energy security and supports the green transition, yet high renewable reliance necessitates balancing mechanisms due to hydro generation's seasonal variability. Integrating Latvia further with the EU grid is crucial for maximizing the benefits of expanding renewable capacity, particularly inshore wind farms, where Latvia holds a competitive advantage.

Latvia’s electricity prices and volatility remain above pre-pandemic levels, close to the EU average, with marginal gas prices significantly impacting electricity costs due to the EU’s marginal spot pricing mechanism. The lack of market integration leads to price disparities across neighboring countries, as seen in instances of negative prices in one area while adjacent zones had positive prices. Closer integration would enhance price correlation, reduce the need for expensive backup capacity, lower price volatility, and decrease fossil fuel burn, while also fostering economic growth and investor confidence.

High electricity prices and volatility impose macroeconomic costs, including reduced competitiveness for energy-intensive industries, hindered investment, lower household consumption, and reduced excise tax revenue. Empirical analysis using firm-level data shows that a 10% increase in electricity price levels reduces manufacturing employment by 2.5%, with greater impact on sectors like beverages, pharmaceuticals, and transport equipment.

To unlock the full benefits of a unified energy market, Latvia should strengthen interconnections with other European power grids, coordinate policies and investments at the EU and national levels, pool resources with neighboring countries for shared grid infrastructure, and streamline domestic permitting processes to accelerate interconnections and renewable development. These actions would enhance energy security, lower prices, and support economic growth, aligning with Latvia’s Energy Strategy 2050 goals for a greener, more secure, and efficient energy supply.

Modernizing Latvia’sElectricity Sector ThroughCloser EU Integration Gianluigi Ferrucci and Can Ugur SIP/2025/136 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 31, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/273. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department Modernizing Latvia’s Electricity Sector Through Closer EU Integration, Republic of LatviaPrepared by Gianluigi Ferrucci and Can Ugur Authorized for distribution by Luis Brandao-MarquesOctober2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 31, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/273. ABSTRACT:This paper discusses strategies to modernize Latvia’s electricity sector, focusing on deeperintegration with the EU electricity grid. Based on the Latvian Energy Strategy 2050, which prioritizes agreener, more secure, and efficient energy supply, the paper highlights the advantages of EU grid integrationover self-sufficiency. Empirical analysis using firm-level data shows that higher electricity prices and volatilityharm manufacturing employment, particularly in sectors like beverages and pharmaceuticals. Looking ahead,Latvia plans to expand its renewable energy capacity, especially inshore wind farms, leveraging itscompetitive advantages. Closer integration with the EU grid will be crucial to fully realizing the economic,environmental, and energy security benefits from this expansion. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Ferrucci, Gianluigi and Can Ugur, 2025. “Modernizing Latvia’s Electricity SectorThrough Closer EU Integration.”IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/135. Washington, D.C., InternationalMonetary Fund. Modernizing Latvia’s ElectricitySector Through Closer EUIntegration Latvia Prepared by Gianluigi Ferrucci and Can Ugur1 REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Gianluigi Ferrucci and Can Ugur CONTENTS MODERNIZING LATVIA’S ELECTRICITY SECTOR THROUGH CLOSER EUINTEGRATION ___________________________________________________________________________2 A. Background: Electricity Demand, Supply, and Prices ___________________________________2B. Benefits of a More Integrated Electricity Market _______________________________________5C. Macroeconomic Costs of High Electricity Prices________________________________________9D. Conclusions___________________________________________________________________________10 FIGURES 1. Electricity Consumption ________________________________________________________________22. Electricity Generation __________________________________________________________________33. Electricity Consumption Covered by Local Generation and Net Imports _______________44. Electricity Prices and Volatility__________________________________________________________45. Electricity Price-Setting Technology ____________________________________________________56. Fragmentation in the Electricity Market ________________________________________________67. Energy Market Integration and Required Investments in Storage ______________________78. Renewable Capacity Factors____________________________________________________________89. Firm-Level Data Estimation for Electricity Price Level and Volatility____________________10 References_______________________________________________________________________________14 ANNEX I. Regression Tables______________________________________________________________________11 MODERNIZING LATVIA’S ELECTRICITY SECTORTHROUGH CLOSER EU INTEGRATION1 The desynchronization from Russia's electricity grid provides an opportunity to modernize Latvia'selectricity infrastructure. Achieving a greener, more secure, and efficient electricity supply is a keypolicy goal of Latvia’s Energy Strategy 2050. However, pursuing this objective through a push forhigher self-sufficiency and autarky would be costly, inefficient, and ultimately sociallyundesirable. A more effective approach involves enhancing security and stability through greaterintegration with neighboring and EU electricity grids, alongside increased risk sharing. This wouldlead to cheaper, less volatile electricity prices for households and businesses. To fully realize thebenefits of a unified electricity market, Latvia must strengthen collaboration at both the regionaland EU levels, fostering a more resilient and interconnected electricity infrastructure. A.Background: Electricity Demand, Supply, and Prices 1.Most of Latvia’s electricity is used in industry and services.Latvia’s electricity consumptionhas increased only modestly since 2005, driven by two main factors: income growth, which haspositively impacted demand, and improvements in energy effici

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