确保拉脱维亚有足够和负担得起的养老金：拉脱维亚共和国

Ensuring Adequate andAffordable Pensions inLatvia Keyra Primus SIP/2025/134 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on July 31, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/273. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean Department Ensuring Adequate and Affordable Pensions in Latvia, Republic of LatviaPrepared by Keyra Primus Authorized for distribution by Luis Brandao-MarquesOctober2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 31, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/273. ABSTRACT:Latvia has a three-pillar pension system consisting of an earnings-related public scheme, afunded mandatory pillar, and a private voluntary contributions pillar. Despite its well-designed structure, thesystem faces challenges in ensuring adequate retirement income and curbing old-age poverty. This paperoutlines policy options to improve pension adequacy and address future pressures on pension spending,including raising revenues, reorienting and rationalizing spending, increasing the contribution rates and thereturns to the mandatory defined contribution pension pillar, and strengthening incentives for higher voluntarysavings for retirement. A comprehensive strategy, including active labor market policies, is also essential toaddress the effects of population aging and improve pension adequacy. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Primus, Keyra, 2025. “Ensuring Adequate and Affordable Pensions in Latvia.”IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/134.Washington, D.C., International Monetary Fund. Ensuring Adequate and AffordablePensions in Latvia Latvia Prepared by Keyra Primus1 REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared ByKeyra Primus ENSURING ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE PENSIONS IN LATVIA ____________________2 A. Pension System Overview______________________________________________________________2B. An Assessment of Pension Adequacy __________________________________________________5C. Pension Projections ____________________________________________________________________6D. Conclusions and Recommendations __________________________________________________10 FIGURES 1. Asset Composition of Pension Plans ___________________________________________________52. At-Risk-of-Poverty Rate of Population _________________________________________________53. Benefit Ratio and Replacement Rate ___________________________________________________74. Implied Pension Expenditures, Fiscal Balance, and Public Debt Under Different BenefitRatio (BR) Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________85. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Under Pillar I vs Pillar II_________________________________96. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Scenarios______________________________________________11 References_______________________________________________________________________________14 ENSURING ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE PENSIONSIN LATVIA1 Latvia has a three-pillar pension system which combines an earnings-related public scheme,based on notional accounts, with a funded mandatory pillar and a private voluntary contributionspillar. Despite the well-designed model, Latvia’s current pension system may be unable to providesome of its citizens with adequate retirement income and curb old-age poverty. Improvingpension adequacy and meeting societal expectations require strengthening the second and thirdpension pillars and raising public spending on pensions in the future—which will add to medium-and long-term spending pressures. The government could improve pension adequacy andaddress future pressures on pension spending by raising revenue, reorienting and rationalizingspending, increasing the contribution rates and the returns to the mandatory defined contributionpension pillar, and strengthening incentives for higher voluntary savings for retirement. Acomprehensive approach should also be adopted to help cushion the effects of population agingand improve pension adequacy, including by pursuing active labor market policies to increaselabor force participation, incentivizing pensioners to work, and linking the retirement ages tofuture life expectancy gains. A. Pension System Overview 1.Latvia’s pension system is made up of three-pillars—two mandatory and one voluntarypillar and it covers most employees and self-employed.2Hence, contributory pensions in Latviaare based on notional and individual accounts.3The pillars are as follows: •The first pillar (pillar I) is a state compulsory and unfunded pension scheme.It is a pay-as-you-go(PAYG), notional defined-contribution (NDC) system with nearly universal coverage.4Under pillar I,pension contri