iPhone 17 预购要点：更长的交付时间表明需求同比增长增强

iPhone 17pre-ordertakeaways:longerdeliverylead timessuggeststronger demand YoY Weconductedtrackingfordelivery lead times for the first two days ofiPhone 17pre-orders(9/12-9/13), andour analysisshowsthataveragedelivery lead timesformostiPhone 17modelsare longer than iPhone 16 last year, implying better-than-fearedconsumerdemand for iPhone 17. In particular, pre-orders for iPhone17basemodel (US$100 cheaper vs iPhone 16) and China market (subsidies,high trade-in value) are tracking much stronger thaniPhone 16last year. Despitemarket concernsonmacro/tariffs, muted AIupgrades and earlier pull-in orders,webelieveastrongeriPhone 17 pre-order trendwill continue to drive re-ratingacross Apply supply chain inthenear term.Forstocks, webelievecontent/sharegainers with highApplesales exposurewill benefit,includingLuxshare(iPhone/Watch OEM/acoustics/haptics),AAC Tech(acoustics/haptics/VC),FIT HonTeng(connectors/AirPods),andBYDE(iPhone casing). China Technology Sector Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk Sector reports:1.Apple launch event: iPhone 17 Air/AirPods Pro 3 as majorhighlights; limited price hike the keypositive (10 Sep 2025)2.Apple FY3Q25 read-through:Strong iPhone, China rebound andservice momentum; 4Q guidancebetter than feared (1 Aug 2025)3.Smartphone: Samsung/MTK/QCOM results takeaways (1 Aug2025) iPhone 17 base model pre-ordersarestronger YoYacross all markets.Deliveryleadtimesfor iPhone 17are 3-4 weeks in China and 2-3 weeks inthe US,which is longer than0-1 week last year. We believe theupbeat pre-ordersaredue to 1)iPhone 17’sbetter affordability: specupgrades(120Hzdisplay, front-cam, better battery life, and faster charging) withUS$100 pricecut, and 2) China subsidy:iPhone 17 starting priceat RMB 5,999is withinthesubsidy requirementin China(max.RMB500for phones priced no higherthan RMB6,000). iPhone17ProMax’sstrengthandiPhone Air’s weakness in-line withexpectations.Delivery times remain the longest for Pro Max models (3-4weeks), followed by Pro model, which reflectsan ongoing premiumizationtrend. For new iPhone Air, it has the shortest delivery timesamong all models,which is in-line withmarketexpectationdue to its higher pricing,smallerbatterysizeand weaker camera spec (single 48MP rear-cam) Tariff-related reports: 1.US newsectoral tariffs better thanfeared; Positive for smartphone/AIserver supply chain (8 Aug 2025)2.Implications of resumption ofH20/MI308 sales in China; Positivefor AI server/component supplychain (16 Jul 2025)3.Implications of US-Vietnam tariffdeal; Apple supply chain to benefitmost(4 Jul 2025)4.Implications of China-US tariffreduction(13 May 2025) Deliveryleadtime in Chinamarketis longer than last year andothermarkets(US/UK/India/HK).1)China’s deliveryleadtimes are much longerthan last year and othermarkets, withtheearliest delivery dateon15-22 Oct(3.5-4.5 weeks’delivery lead time).2)In India, Pro/Maxmodels’lead timesare longerthan last yearand17/Airmodelsare shorter,which suggests afaster premiumizationtrend.3)The USand UKhaveshowedsimilardeliverylead timesfor Pro/Max models vslast year, except for iPhone 17basemodel. Top picks: Luxshare, AAC Tech, FIT Hon Teng, BYDE.In near term,initialpre-order delivery times for iPhone 17 suggestconsumer demand is better-than-feared,especially for iPhone17 base model and China market. Weexpectsector re-rating will continue for Apply supply chain, andcontent/sharegainers in iPhone/AirPods/Watchwillbenefit,suchas Luxshare(iPhone/Watch OEM/ acoustics/haptics), AAC Tech (acoustics/ haptics/VC),FIT Hon Teng (connectors/AirPods),andBYDE (iPhone casing). Company reports: 1.BYDE (285 HK)-2Q25 upbeat;Multiple growthdrivers in foldableiPhone, auto and AI server (liquidcooling, power, 800G/1.6G/CPO) (1Sep 2025)2.Luxshare (002475 CH)–3Q25guidance/2Q25 results in-line;communication /auto segmentscontinue strong growth momentum(27 Aug 2025)3.AAC Tech (2018 HK)–1H25upgrade cycle in 2H25E in-linedespite GPM dip; Solid outlookintact on AI-driven upgrade cycle in2H25E (22 Aug 2025) Focus Charts Source: Company data,IDC,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related tothe specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in ortraded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2)willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this resea