2025年邮政行业状况：重新构想邮政力量：规模、服务与生存

Postal power reimagined:scale, service and survival Published by the Universal Postal Union (UPU)Berne, Switzerland Printed in Switzerland by the printing servicesof the UPU International Bureau Copyright © 2025 Universal Postal Union All rights reserved Except as otherwise indicated, the copyrightin this publication is owned by the UniversalPostal Union. Reproduction is authorized fornon-commercial purposes, subject to properacknowledgement of the source.This authorization does not extend to any material identified in this publication as beingthe copyright of a third party (e.g. throughan image credit). Authorization to reproducesuch third party materials must be obtainedfrom the copyright holders concerned. TITLE: State of the Postal Sector 2025,Postal power reimagined: scale,service and survival ISBN:978-92-95116-40-5 DESIGN: Sonja Denovski CONTACT: thinktank@upu.int STATE OFTHE POSTALSECTOR 2025 Postal power reimagined: scale, service and survival Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................9The path forward................................................................................................................................................10INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................12 Section 1 FROM A SEAMLESS NETWORK TO A PATCHWORK OF HIGHWAYS............................15 KEY TAKEAWAYS.................................................................................................................16 Systemic transformation of the postal network...................................................................................17Why fragmentation matters: four transmission axes.........................................................................18Political-economy lens: when hubs entrench dependency and when they do not.............19Empirical core I: volume clusters reveal the scale of fragmentation...........................................21Empirical core II: delivery times, reliability and the human cost..................................................24Empirical core III – price clusters, pandemic surcharges and a legacy of fragmentation27Synthesis – from patchwork to a distributed postal grid................................................................28Potential governance architecture: differentiated multilateralismand regionalizing the UPU............................................................................................................................30Conclusion – toward a resilient and inclusive global postal economy......................................31 Section 2 POSTAL DECOUPLING AND ITS DRIVERS: A LONG-RUN ANALYSIS..........................35 KEY TAKEAWAYS.................................................................................................................36 Postal sector–GDP growth: decoupling after a century of growth............................................37Data, variable construction and sample definition............................................................................39Econometric framework.................................................................................................................................40How do postal revenues decouple from GDP?....................................................................................41Regional analysis of postal revenue – GDP decoupling..................................................................44What strategies helped postal operators?.............................................................................................48Practical implications for postal operators............................................................................................49Policy implications and recommendations...........................................................................................49Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................................51 2025 INTEGRATED INDEX FOR POSTAL DEVELOPMENT...........................................53 Defining postal development levels............................................................................................................55Postal development level and 2IPD score results..................................................................................592024 2IPD scores by country...........................................................................................................................64Leaders in postal excellence, regional champions, rising stars and top 2IPD improvers....69Top 2IPD improvers.............................................................................................................................................74Natural postal development – identifying real postal progress achievers..................