从风险到韧性：将气候智能融入金融决策-在受气候影响的世界中重新构想金融服务

Reimagining financial servicesin a climate-influenced world Why climate risk is the new credit risk Climate risk has moved from the headlines into thebalance sheets of financial institutions. For decades,credit models and financial stress tests have helpedinstitutions decide who to lend to, where to invest, andhow to optimize their financial resources. But the nextmajor risk factor isn’t about creditworthiness or marketvolatility. It’s about something even less predictable:the climate. effects eventually land in lenders’ portfolios asincreased default risk and reduced Return on Equity. Even “stable lending” – including financing sustainableoperations or transition projects – carries climate risk.A borrower’s net-zero transition plan can falter if supplychains collapse, new technologies underperform orextreme weather interrupts operations. When thathappens, the bank carries the default risk. Climate risks don’t stop at the flood, fire or droughtitself. They ripple outward, disrupting supply chains,cutting off access to raw materials and delayingproduction. A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico doesn’tjust damage property – it halts shipments of chemicalsand plastics used worldwide. A drought in Latin Americadoesn’t just affect crops – it drives up input costs forfood companies across the globe. Those downstream •Best practices for modeling:By integratinggeospatial data, financial modeling, and robustscenario analysis and stress testing capabilities,banks get a consolidated portfolio-wide view.That’s what allows leadership teams to makeinformed, top-down decisions. Evidence on the ground The testimonies are already here. In 2022, Europefaced its worst drought in 500 years. Water levels onthe Rhine dropped so low that cargo ships could onlysail at 25% capacity, delaying deliveries and driving upcosts across multiple industries.1That same year, theMississippi River ran so shallow that more than 2,000barges were stranded until dredging crews cleareda path. The impact was an estimated $20 billion ineconomic damage.2And in the American Southwest,scientists say the region is amid its driest period in1,200 years.3 Layer 3: Sustainable lending This is where climate risk starts to cut deep. Transitionfinance and net-zero loans are tied directly to theborrower’s ability to change their business model. Ifthat borrower faces a climate disruption or fails totransition, the loan defaults. •Best practices for modeling:Banks can stress testborrowers under different climate scenarios, definerisk appetite, and structure financing terms thatbalance growth with resilience. For financial institutions, sustainability isn’t just aboutgreening their own operations. It’s about understandingthe climate exposures built into borrowers’ businessmodels, supply chains, and transition plans. Climate riskhas already become the new credit risk. The challengenow is measuring it quickly and accurately enough tomanage it. The layers of climate risk Financial institutions face physical and transition riskson multiple levels. It shows up in their own operations,the loans they extend, and the portfolios they manage.To make sense of it, we can think of three tiers of risk. Layer 1: The bank as an entity Banks are physical entities. Offices, data centers,and branches all sit in locations exposed to floods,heatwaves or wildfires. This is the simplest levelof climate risk. If a critical facility goes offline, thedisruption is real. •Best practices for modeling:These exposures canbe mapped and monitored, helping institutions putthe right mitigation and continuity plans in place. Layer 2: Portfolio-wide exposure The middle layer is the hardest and the most integral.Banks hold diverse exposures: trading books, realestate, private equity, and corporate loans. These areoften managed in silos, which makes it difficult to seethe aggregate climate risk picture. What makes climaterisk modeling effective Why currentapproaches fall short Financial institutions aren’t choosing whether to modelclimate risk. Regulators and standard setters arealready requiring it. Across the globe, the bar is high,and the timelines are real: Climate models only matter if the results are clear,credible, and useful for decision-making. The mosteffective approaches share five traits: •Accuracy:Global climate datasets provide thebaseline – but without local refinement, they miss therisks that matter most. A global flood model mightflag “Western Europe,” but a local dataset pinpointswhich rivers are at risk and which industrial zones siton their banks. •The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive(CSRD)in the EU is live, mandating sustainabilitydisclosures backed by data and scenario analysis. •The Task Force on Climate-Related FinancialDisclosures (TCFD)has become a global baseline,already embedded in reporting regimes from the UKto Japan. •Integration:Too often, sustainability teams, riskmanagers, and finance teams use different tools. Theresult is duplicated