宏观周报：地产下游消费回暖

中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料涨跌互现。农副产品方面，鸡蛋价格因中秋备货及学校开学需求走强，小麦则因饲料替代优势出现跟涨。钢铁市场成材分化，建筑钢材偏弱而制造业板材稳健，成本端铁矿石与焦炭价格下行提供一定缓冲。化工品中硫酸铵因供需宽松而承压。整体市场对“金九银十”传统旺季仍存期待，但更关注实际需求兑现情况及后续政策效果。 中游：本周高技术制造业在政策扶持下继续保持良好发展态势。政策支持方面，“两重”“两新”政策成效明显，上半年全国设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3%，专项债资金等政策工具正着力打通“稳需求-去库存-提质量”闭环。集群化发展趋势显著，全国已布局80个国家级先进制造业集群，绿色低碳转型稳步推进，国家层面绿色工厂产值已占制造业总产值超20%。 下游：金九银十期间，关注各地政府与企业通过发放消费券、开展主题促销以及推行“以旧换新”等多种举措。地产下游消费方面，一线城市商品房销售较上期有较大回升，多数城市房价有所回落。国内与国际航班班次均维持回落态势。 细分行业 大农业：棕榈油价格回落，鸡蛋价格持续回升；苹果库存延续回落态势。 能源：本期国际原油、天然气价格小幅回落。 采矿业：本期有色方面铅、铜价格小幅上行，黑色商品集体小幅下行。 化工：除甲醇外，其余化工品价格小幅度回落；对二甲苯库存持续下行。 基建：混凝土价格保持上行态势，水泥价格回落。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，深渊和杭州房价较上期上涨较多，厦门房价较上期回落；一线城市北上广商品房销售较上期提升。 物流运输：美西航线运价指数持续回落；公路、铁路运输量提升，水路货运减少。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................5三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................6四、细分行业跟踪......................................................................................................................................94.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................124.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................134.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：三大产业用电量................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业PPI同比..............................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织服饰市场景气指数....................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政营业数据：快递业务量............................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差....................................