商业韧性行动手册：解读塑造消费者行为的信号与冲击

Playbook Decoding the signals and shocksthat shape consumer behavior Navigating uncertainty with resilience Today’s business leaders are facing a uniquely challenging moment: Shifting policies, fluctuating consumersentiment, and economic uncertainty have created an unpredictable environment where day-to-day decision-making—let alone planning for the future—feels overwhelming. In moments like these, most economic outlooks offer broad trends or surface-level forecasts.This one is different. We’re delighted to once again collaborate with Yale economists Martha Gimbel and Ernie Tedeschi to bring youthis Business Resiliency Playbook. Taking a deep dive into 50 years of historical US data, they reviewed consumerbehavior across major economic shocks—from recessions and stagflation to geopolitical crisis. Their analysisreveals not only how consumers respond in each scenario, but also the key signals that indicate shifts are coming. Making this playbook actionable isour business resiliency framework—a detailed guide thatoutlines how tointerpret these signals, along with specific steps retailers and manufacturers can take to respond to themwith agility and confidence. We hope you’ll use it as a strategic compass to guide your planning and position yourbusiness for resilience and growth in the months ahead. Courtenay Verret Vice President,Global Thought Leadership, NIQ About the authors: ErnieTedeschi MarthaGimbel CourtenayVerret Martha Gimbel is the Executive Director ofThe Budget Lab at Yale. She has worked asan advisor and an economist in senior rolesacross government, the private sector,and philanthropy, including the WhiteHouse Council of Economic Advisers, theDepartment of Labor, the Joint EconomicCommittee on Capitol Hill, Schmidt Futures,and Indeed.com. She is an expert in arange of economic data, including the labormarket, consumer spending, inflation, andeconomic growth, and in how economicand policy dynamics intersect. Courtenay Verret is Vice President,Global Thought Leadership at NIQ, whereshe connects data-driven insights withcompelling narratives that position thecompany at the forefront of consumerintelligence. Her work spans criticaltopics such as AI, innovation, and brandmarketing, helping shape strategicconversations. Courtenay plays a keyrole in amplifying NIQ’s brand authority byfostering influential partnerships, drivingexecutive engagement, and deliveringinsights that resonate across industriesand markets. Ernie Tedeschi is the Director ofEconomics at The Budget Lab at Yale anda Visiting Fellow at the Psaros Center forFinancial Markets and Policy at GeorgetownUniversity. He is also a regular BloombergOpinion columnist. Until March 2024, hewas the Chief Economist at the WhiteHouse Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).Prior to CEA, Ernie was Managing Directorand Head of Fiscal Analysis at EvercoreISI. He has also been an economist atthe US Department of the Treasury and acontributor to the New York Times Upshotcolumn. Table of Contents Planning for business resilience? Or decision-making inthe dark?14 Past is prologue: Five historical scenarios that could mirrorfuture outlook27 Different shocks, familiar patterns: Decoding consumerbehavior under pressure311 Plan for business resilience: Key signals and strategies toguide future scenario planning429 33 Click on the contents to navigate Planning forbusiness resilience?Or decision-makingin the dark?1 Where is the economy heading? And howwill consumers respond? These questions are undoubtedly top of mind formanufacturers and retailers as they face a globaleconomic landscape marked by an extraordinarydegree of uncertainty. But in our quest to forecastwhat’s coming, are we overcomplicating what reallymatters for building business resilience? From shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions to volatile financialmarkets and evolving consumer behaviors, today’s environment is moreunpredictable now than at any point since the pandemic five years ago. Thisuncertainty is not an abstraction—it’s a daily reality, shaping the decisions ofbusinesses, policymakers, and consumers alike. For business leaders, this unpredictability presents a challenge: Decisionsabout pricing, hiring, supply chain investments, brand positioning, andinnovation pipelines must be made in the face of incomplete information andrapidly changing conditions. Traditional models and former precedents mayno longer provide reliable guidance, making it difficult to chart a clear pathforward.Yet, choosing not to act—delaying key decisions or defaulting tothe status quo—is also itself a decision, one that can leave organizationsexposed to risks and missed opportunities. In a 2022 report, McKinsey found that the actions a company takesbeforeany sort of economic shock (e.g., what it does to prepare or where it invests)could account for as much as half of the gap in shareholder returns betweenleaders—and those who lag behind. In this context,business resiliency plannin