2025年年中电力报告

Electricity Mid-YearUpdate 2025 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Despite a slowdown in global economic growth prospects, the world’s electricityconsumption increased strongly in the first half of 2025, driven by rising demandfrom industry, appliances, cooling, data centres and electrification. At the sametime, electricity supply from renewables, natural gas and nuclear continues togrow, with all set to reach new milestones. This mid-year update follows the extensiveElectricity 2025report released inFebruary, examining the latest trends and the outlook for the remainder of theyear. It includes updated data for 2024 along with new forecasts for 2025 and2026 covering areas such as global electricity demand, supply by fuel type, andcarbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation. The report alsoanalysesthe latest developments in major economies including China,theEuropean Union, India and the United States and provides updated tracking ofwholesale electricity prices across markets worldwide. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power Markets (GCP) Division ofthe International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Directorate of Energy Markets andSecurity (EMS). It was designed and directed by Eren Çam, Energy Analyst forElectricity. The lead authors are Eren Çam, Marc Casanovas and John Moloney. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the IEA’s EMS Directorate and Dennis Hesseling,Head of GCP, provided expert guidance and advice. Valuable comments were provided by other senior management within the IEA, inparticular, Laura Cozzi. In addition, expert guidance and valuable input fromCarlos Fernández Álvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, is greatly appreciated. The report also benefited from analysis, data and input from Hendrik Diers, CaroleEtienne, Martin Strand Hušek, Yu Kawasaki, Akos Losz, Gergely Molnár andFrederick Ritter. IEAcolleagues across the agency provided helpful input,comments andfeedback, in particular, Heymi Bahar, Alessandro Blasi, Stéphanie Bouckaert,Ciarán Healy, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Victor Garcia Tapiaand Brent Wanner. Theauthors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing themanuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, JethroMullen, Clara Vallois and Astrid Dumond. Questions or comments? Please write to us atgcp@iea.orgoreren.cam@iea.org Table of contents Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 6Demand: Global electricity use to grow strongly in 2025 and 2026.............................. 10Supply: Renewables grow the most, followed by gas and nuclear .............................. 16Emissions: Power generation CO2emissions are plateauing ....................................... 22Prices: Trends in wholesale markets differ across regions .......................................... 24General annex ..................................................................................................................... 29 Executive summary Global electricity demand on course to expand robustlyin 2025 and 2026 despite economic headwinds Global power demand is expected to rise much faster over the forecast2025-2026 period than it did during the past decade.While slower than the4.4% surge in 2024, growth forecasts of 3.3% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026 remainamong the highest rates observed in the past decade and well above the 2015-2023 average of 2.6%. Despite a slowdown in economic activity, which hasweighed on global electricity use so far in 2025, heatwaves continue to add todemand in many regions, as they did in 2024. Rising demand from industry,appliances, growing air conditioning use, the expansion of data centres, andongoing electrification will remain major drivers of