聚烯烃日报：供需双增格局，聚烯烃窄幅震荡

市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7251元/吨（+6），PP主力合约收盘价为6968元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6800元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-101元/吨（-6），LL华东基差为-81元/吨（-6），PP华东基差为-168元/吨（-37）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为80.5%（+1.9%），PP开工率为79.9%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为385.4元/吨（+113.9），PP油制生产利润为-194.6元/吨（+113.9），PDH制PP生产利润为-275.1元/吨（-28.3）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-237.2元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为-577.2元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.9美元/吨（+0.0）。下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为20.2%（+2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.5%（+0.9%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.7%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+1.0%）。 市场分析 “反内卷”、产能清退等消息提振宏观氛围，基本面供需双增格局，聚烯烃窄幅震荡。PE多套装置停车检修，整体开工率小幅走低，供应压力预计小幅缓解，PP新增产能放量。下游需求处于“金九银十”季节性淡旺季过渡时期，农膜、包装膜等下游开工率呈现小幅上涨趋势，塑编、BOPP等开工环比持平。上游生产库存小幅上涨，中游环节库存走低，下游刚需采购增加。随着9月中下旬需求旺季的陆续到来，下游开工率有上涨预期，短期供需边际或好转。原油弱势整理，PDH制PP利润小幅亏损，PDH装置检修量增加。 策略 单边：中性；跨期：01-05反套；跨品种：L-P做多。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 目录 一、聚烯烃基差结构...................................................................................................................................4二、生产利润与开工率...............................................................................................................................5三、聚烯烃非标价差...................................................................................................................................6四、聚烯烃进出口利润...............................................................................................................................7五、聚烯烃下游开工与下游利润...................................................................................................................9六、聚烯烃库存.......................................................................................................................................10 图表 图1：塑料期货主力合约走势....................................................................................................................................................4图2：LL华东-主力合约基差......................................................................................................................................................4图3：聚丙烯期货主力合约走势................................................................................................................................................4图4：PP华东-主力合约基差......................................................................................................................................................4图5：LL生产利润（原油制）...................................................................................................................................................5图6：PE开工率...........................................................................................................................................................................5图7：PE周度产量.......................................................................................................................................................................5图8：PE检修损失量...................................................................................................................................................................5图9：PP生产利润（原油制）...................................................................................................................................................5图10：PP生产利润（PDH制）.................................................................................................................................................5图11：PP开工率.........................................................................................................................................................................6图12：PP周度产量.....................................................................................................................................................................6图13：PP检修损失量.................................................................................................................................................................6图14：PDH制PP产能利用率.....................................................................................................................................................6图15：HD注塑-LL华东..............................................................................................................................................................6图16：HD中空-LL华东..............................................................................................................................................................6图17：HD薄膜-LL华东..............................................................................................................................................................7图18：LD华东-LL......................................................................................................................................................................7图19：PP低熔共聚-拉丝华东....................................................................................................................................................7图20：PP均聚注塑-拉丝华东...........................................................................................................................