利用国家气候政策提高能源可负担性（英）

Issue Brief 25-11 byNicholas RoyandDallas Burtraw— August 2025 States can lead on climate policy while shieldinghouseholds from the affordability impacts of risingpolicy uncertainties. residential electricity rates (Meng and Prasad 2025).2The scenario examines the implementation of the policyin eight leadership states that have previously pursuedclean energy policies such as renewable portfoliostandards but do not currently have carbon pricingin place.3We model an electricity-sector carbon price Energy affordability is a concern to households acrossthe country.1Inflationary pressure in the electricitysector is especially salient with the rapid expansion ofdata centers and an anticipated increase in electricitydemand resulting from electrification of other sectors 1.The Impact of the Reversal of This issue brief considers an opportunity for stategovernments to respond to this challenge by enhancingelectricity affordability for households and concurrentlyboosting environmental outcomes. Investments inrenewable energy and energy efficiency would reduce The phaseout of the clean energy tax credits underthe 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) throughpassage of the 2025 budget reconciliation bill heavilyrestricts federal support for investments in relativelylow-cost renewable energy generation. Investment inclean electricity is further constrained by uncertainty electricity costs. With the loss of federal support forthese investments, we explore the potential introductionof a price on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the 1Buchsbaum and Kahn-Lang (2025) summarize data from the US Energy Information Administration to illustrate that nationalaverage real electricity prices have risen over the past four years after nearly two decades of flat or decreasing real prices. 2An example of this approach is embodied in recently proposed legislation in Pennsylvania (House Bill 503), which would introducean electricity-sector carbon market and direct 70 percent of the auction proceeds to paying rebates to electric ratepayers, 3Electricity-sector emissions are already subject to carbon pricing in the 10 currently participating Northeast and mid-Atlanticstates Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (with two other observer states) and in California and Washington. Oregon has aregulatory cap on emissions. 4A recentexecutive orderdirects Treasury to define Foreign Entity of Concern and commence construction to restrict the usage ofthe credits that remain after the budget bill. while the deployment of new gas-fired capacity is also achieve environmental goals and concurrently reduce Repeal of the tax credits for clean energy and thegeneral removal of Department of Energy cleanenergy programs is likely to result in further increasesin electricity prices (Jenkins et al. 2025; King et al.2025; Orvis et al. 2025; Roy and Palmer, 2025) Thereversal means that not as much cheap capacity thatis quick to come online will get built to meet growing The emissions target we model would reduce carbondioxide emissions from the electric power sector to 80percent below 2005 levels in 2030. The modeled targetscover electricity generation for domestic consumptionand export in each state. Imported electricity isassigned an emissions intensity associated with theaverage annual rate in the adjoining state, taken fromthe no-policy baseline, and emissions associated withimported electricity are included under the emissionscap.7This ambitious target is consistent with the stated demand. Consequently, electricity prices are estimatedto increase by 6–10 percent by 2035 under baseline The exact timing of impacts for electricity ratepayers isstill unknown. Only new wind and solar projects initiatedsometime before 2027 will qualify for the tax credits.Projects coming online as late as 2029 might still qualifyfor the credit depending on their current constructionstatus and compliance with the as-yet-undeterminedForeign Entity of Concern requirements. While price Figure 1 shows the impact of the state emissions capsand the associated percentage change in electricityprices in the eight states we model, which have shownclean energy leadership but do not currently have a The blue column on the left side of the panel showsthat full implementation of the IRA would lead to a 3percent reduction in electricity prices in the set of eightleadership states in 2030. The figure shows a range ofoutcomes in those states, as illustrated by the array of 2.The Opportunity for States We use RFF’s Haiku electricity market model to conductthis exercise, building a hypothetical baseline withoutthe IRA.6We find that every state we model can usecarbon pricing, such as a cap-and-invest program, to 5RMI’s Utility Transition Hubestimates that the uneconomic operation of coal-fired power plants has incurred $24 billion in 6This hypothetical baseline assumes the IRA was not implemented and may describe price effects that are greater than what willbe realized by 2030, in co