剖析亚洲中期增长前景（英）

Dissecting Medium-Term Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin WP/25/168 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin Authorized for distribution by Paulo A. Medas IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper explores Asia-Pacific's medium-term growth prospects using two approaches. First,growth accounting analysis and machine-learning estimation reveal how demographics, capital deepening,productivity, and human capital shaped Asia's growth. Second, an innovative algorithm forecasts growth bymatching countries' current conditions with historically analogous periods using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). RECOMMENDED CITATION:Che, Natasha, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, and Weining Xin (2025)."Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia." IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, WORKING PAPERS Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Prepared by Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia NatashaChe,FedericoJ.D´ıez,AnneOeking,WeiningXin August3,2025 Abstract ThispaperexploresAsia-Pacific’smedium-termgrowthprospectsusingtwocomple-mentaryapproaches.First,weconductagrowthaccountinganalysisandmachine-learning-basedgrowthdriverestimation,revealinghowdemographics,capitaldeep-ening,productivity,andhumancapitalhaveshapedAsia’sgrowthtrajectories.Sec-ond,weintroduceaninnovativealgorithmthatforecastsgrowthbymatchingcoun- Keywords:economic growth; Asian economies; machine learning; growth decomposition, dy- 1Introduction Economic growth remains one of the most important issues in economic public policy debates.Understanding the dynamics of economic growth is crucial, as it influences employment rates,income levels, and welfare. An accurate and realistic forecast of medium-term growth trends is Over the past two decades, growth trajectories across advanced economies and emerg-ing market and developing economies have shown notable differences. Starting with the GlobalFinancial Crisis, many economies experienced significant growth deceleration, particularly pro-nounced in advanced economies, contributing to discussions about secular stagnation (Inter-national Monetary Fund, 2015, International Monetary Fund, 2016).While many emerging Many analysts produce comprehensive forecasts by combining systematic modeling withdetailed country-specific expert analysis. This integration of quantitative frameworks with gran-ular country expertise has proven particularly valuable for short-term forecasting, where recent Yet, medium-term planning requires careful consideration of potential growth trajec-tories to inform policy frameworks and economic decisions.Traditional medium-term growth and its associated parameter values. Such assumptions, however, may not fully reflect a coun-try’s development stage or other country-specific fundamentals. Moreover, forecasting accuracytends to decrease as the time horizon extends, reflecting the fundamental uncertainty in pre- Against this background, this paper aims to answer the following questions: •Historically, what have been the main drivers of economic growth of economies in the •Going forward, what are Asia-Pacific’s medium-term growth prospects? We follow two complementary strategies to address these questions.First, we exam-ine growth drivers using both growth accounting and machine learning tree-based approaches.By decomposing historical growth into contributions from traditional production factors (e.g.,capital, labor, technology), the growth accounting analysis quantifies their relative importance Both backward-looking approaches—the growth decomposition and the tree-based ap-proach—yield insights into the main drivers behind the growth performance in the Asia-Pacific force participation have emerged as important growth drivers. In emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIEs), productivity growth and gains in human capital have been themost significant drivers since the 2000s, likely linked to technology transfer and knowledge Building on these insights, the second part of the paper develops medium-term economicgrowth forecasts for Asia-Pacific through two complementary methods:a growth accountingframework and a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)-based pattern-matching method. The growthaccounting projections—analogous to the historical decomposition—forecast individual factors(labor, capital, productivity) into the medium term based on the current trends. By contrast, Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, our analys