剖析亚洲中期增长前景

Dissecting Medium-TermGrowth Prospects forAsia Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin WP/25/168 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin Authorized for distribution by Paulo A. MedasAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper explores Asia-Pacific's medium-term growth prospects using two approaches. First,growth accounting analysis and machine-learning estimation reveal how demographics, capital deepening,productivity, and human capital shaped Asia's growth. Second, an innovative algorithm forecasts growth bymatching countries' current conditions with historically analogous periods using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW).Comparing pattern-based forecasts with traditional projections highlights economic convergence anddemographic headwinds. Results show that without ambitious reforms, Asia's growth will likely moderate,though remaining the world's fastest growing region. The paper offers data-driven tools for policymakers toidentify growth drivers and generate robust forecasts. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Che, Natasha, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, and Weining Xin (2025)."Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia." IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund,Washington, DC. WORKING PAPERS Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Prepared by Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin1 Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia NatashaChe,FedericoJ.D´ıez,AnneOeking,WeiningXin August3,2025 Abstract ThispaperexploresAsia-Pacific’smedium-termgrowthprospectsusingtwocomple-mentaryapproaches.First,weconductagrowthaccountinganalysisandmachine-learning-basedgrowthdriverestimation,revealinghowdemographics,capitaldeep-ening,productivity,andhumancapitalhaveshapedAsia’sgrowthtrajectories.Sec-ond,weintroduceaninnovativealgorithmthatforecastsgrowthbymatchingcoun-try’scurrentconditionswithhistoricallyanalogouscountry-periodsusingDynamicTimeWarping(DTW).Bycomparingthesepattern-basedforecastswithtraditionalproductionfunction-basedprojections,wehighlightthepowerofeconomicconver-genceandthedemographicheadwindsfacingtheregion.Ourresultsshowthat,withoutambitiousreforms,Asia’sgrowthislikelytomoderate,althoughitwouldremaintheworld’sfastestgrowingregion.Overall,thepaperoffersaflexible,data-driventoolsetforpolicymakerstoidentifykeygrowthdrivers,generaterobustgrowthforecasts,andthinkaboutstructuralchangesoftheeconomy. Keywords:economic growth; Asian economies; machine learning; growth decomposition, dy-namic time warping 1Introduction Economic growth remains one of the most important issues in economic public policy debates.Understanding the dynamics of economic growth is crucial, as it influences employment rates,income levels, and welfare. An accurate and realistic forecast of medium-term growth trends isessential not only for economic policymaking—serving as foundational inputs for fiscal frame-works, debt sustainability analyses, and structural reform agendas—but also for investmentplanning and resource allocation decisions of the entire economy. Accurate forecasting enablespolicymakers and businesses to make informed decisions that can mitigate risks, harness oppor-tunities, and foster sustainable development, ultimately shaping future economic environment. Over the past two decades, growth trajectories across advanced economies and emerg-ing market and developing economies have shown notable differences. Starting with the GlobalFinancial Crisis, many economies experienced significant growth deceleration, particularly pro-nounced in advanced economies, contributing to discussions about secular stagnation (Inter-national Monetary Fund, 2015, International Monetary Fund, 2016).While many emergingmarket and developing economies demonstrated greater resilience in the post-crisis years, thisperformance was heterogeneous across regions and economies, with several major emergingeconomies experiencing their own slowdowns by the mid-2010s. More recently, growth in emerg-ing economies has broadly decelerated (International Monetary Fund, 2024b).The currentdecade has been marked by significant destabilizing shocks—including the COVID-19 pandemic,supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical tensions—that have collec-tively created a challenging global economic environment. These developmen