电池行业：近期锂矿停产潜在影响分析

Battery sector:Potential impacts from recent lithium mineproduction suspension Event:CATL has suspended production at its lithium mine in Jiangxi province 11 AUGUST 2025Sector Research ReportProduction time: 16:47* (London time)Research Analysts & Publishing Entities According to CATL, it has suspended its Jiangxi lithium mine’s production from Aug 9, 2025, due tothe expiration of its mining license and CATL is currently in the process of renewing the license. Our view: positive for battery prices with limited negative impact on CATL1) It may tighten the lithium supply and strengthen the lithium price:According to BNP ParibasExane APACcommodities research team,this event could indicate all the eight porcelain mines(incl. CATL’s one) in Jiangxi are facing the similar issue: whether the government will allow them tocontinue to produce lithium as a byproduct or ask them to be re-registered as lithium mines(typically taking 6-12 months). If the latter happens, 10% of global supply could be impacted andlithium price may rally by 20% to above RMB90k/ton. The market appears to have started to price inthis scenario.2) Not necessarily a bad thing for battery makers:Interestingly, we note that newenergy sectors normally see material price rally as a good indicator, similar to the recent polysiliconprice rally in the solar sector. We think this is mainly because the material costs only constitutea limited portion of the end-product costs: specifically, we estimate lithium costs only makes up 5%- Alex LiuBNP Paribas Securities (China) LimitedSAC Reg. no.:S1880525020001+86 21 6096 9881alex.s.liu@bnpparibas-sec.cn Ryan ChenBNP Paribas Securities (China) Limited1SAC Reg. no.:S1880525020003+86 21 6096 9928ryan.chen@bnpparibas-sec.cn Seepage6forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosures,Non-USResearchAnalystdisclosuresandBNPParibasGroupCorporateSocialResponsibility("CSR")policies.BNP Paribas has adopted strict CSR policies that govern financing and investment in certain sectors. For time of dissemination, please refer to the Cube. (1) Qualified securitiesinvestment consultancy firm in PRC Investment case, valuation and risks CALB Group Co Ltd (Outperform, Target Price HKD28.2) Investment case In 2024, CALB was globally ranked fourth by market share in the EV batterymarketand fifth by market share in the ESS battery market. CALB's market share in EV batterywas ranked third in China in 2024. We expect CALB to accelerate its earnings growthin the coming years, through its strengths in both NCM and LFP batteries as well as its Valuation methodology We derive our target price for CALB by using DCF-based valuation methodologybecause we believe a DCF valuation best captures long term growth and impact of capex Risks To the upside:1) Higher-than-expected global EV penetration rate. 2) Faster-than-expected demand growthof energy storage batteries.3)Better-than-expected ASP.4)Faster-than- To the downside:1) Lower-than-expected demand growth of EV. 2) Lower-than-expected battery demand fromenergy storage.3)Lower-than-expected battery ASP due to more intense Contemporary Amperex Technology- A (Outperform, Target PriceCNY400) Investment case CATL achieved the global largest market share in EV batteries foreightconsecutiveyears and in ESS batteries forfour consecutive years by 2024. CATL's market sharein EV battery was ranked No.1 in both China and ex-China markets in 2024. We believeCATL will further strengthen its global market through continuous capacity expansions,deep penetration into OEMs, branding efforts, focus on both current-generation and Valuation methodology We derive our target price for CATL by using DCF-based valuation because we believea DCF valuation best captures long term growth and the impact of capex and working Risks To the upside:1) Higher-than-expected global EV penetration rate. 2) Faster-than-expected demand growthof energy storage batteries.3)Better-than-expected ASP.4)Faster-than- To the downside:1) Lower-than-expected demand growth of EV. 2) Lower-than-expected battery demand fromenergy storage.3)Lower-than-expected battery ASP due to more intense oversupply. 4) Slower-than-expected battery cost reduction. 5) Potential impacts fromtrade frictions. Contemporary Amperex Technology- H (Outperform, Target PriceHKD531) Investment case CATL achieved the global largest market share in EV batteries foreightconsecutiveyears and in ESS batteries forfour consecutive years by 2024. CATL's market sharein EV battery was ranked No.1 in both China and ex-China markets in 2024. We believeCATL will further strengthen its global market through continuous capacity expansions,deep penetration into OEMs, branding efforts, focus on both current-generation and Valuation methodology We value CATL - H in line with our target price derivation methodology for CATL - A, byusing a DCF-based valuation methodology, applying a H-share premium to our target Risks To the upside:1) Higher-than-expected global