商品市场洞察：多晶硅反内卷情绪主导市场，黑色系原料短期坚挺中期承压

Morning Insight:September 5, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Polysilicon:Anti-involution sentiment dominates the market, with a focuson buying on dips. In the short term, the market is trading more onexpectations of September policy implementation, and the futures show aneasy-to-rise, hard-to-fall pattern. From a fundamental perspective,although there are production cuts on the supply side in September, someplants have resumed production to offset supply, so the overall reductionis not significant. On the demand side, wafer production scheduling hasslightly increased month-on-month, and supply and demand in September mayshow a slight inventory accumulation. In addition, from the perspective of downstream restocking, downstreambuyers began more evident restocking from late August, and current rawmaterial inventories have reached the level of 2–3 months, creating ashort-term vacuum period for spot procurement. However, overseas exportdemand at present has supported the rise in downstream quotations, whichindicates that polysilicon price increases have gradually been accepteddownstream, with smooth spot transmission. Looking ahead, the market assigns limited weight to fundamentals andinstead trades more on policy expectations. The overall approach remainsmaintaining a buy-on-dips investment strategy. Ferrous Sector:Raw materials remain firm in the short term, while mid-term pressures persist Raw materials remain firm in the short term: First, during the NationalDay holiday, northern steel mills and coal mining enterprises implementedsignificant production cuts. Following the conclusion of the militaryparade, steel mills plan to resume production, which is supportive ofsteelmaking raw materials. Second, expectations for anti-involutionpolicies have resurfaced. Mid-term pressures persist: Grassroots research indicates that terminalproduction schedules in household appliances and automobiles have notimproved significantly, and the demand outlook for the traditional peakseason of“Golden September and Silver October”is highly likely to becharacterized as peak season in name only. During the off-seasonexpectation positive feedback phase, blast furnaces and electric furnacesserve as the main suppliers of steel, while traders and terminalsconstitute the demandside. However, once the peak season arrives,traders transform into suppliers, and this role shift results insignificant supply-side pressure for steel. From a balance-sheetperspective, in order to prevent a substantial increase in steelinventories, supply reductions are the only viable mechanism, with thenecessary condition being falling prices and compressed margins.Currently, although daily scrap consumption at electric furnaces hasdeclined for three consecutive weeks, the absolute level remains high,leading to rapid steel inventory accumulation. Consequently, the industrychain continues to face substantial negative feedback pressure. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank, onThursday said that it will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan (about 140.74billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repo operation on Friday,aiming to maintain ample liquidity in the national banking system.The operation will have a tenor of three months (91 days) and will beconducted using a fixed-quantity, interest-rate-bidding and multiple-price-bidding method, according to the PBOC statement. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, said that theoperation will help inject liquidity into the market, underscoring acontinued supportive monetary policy stance and stabilizing marketexpectations. Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introducedin October 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--are carried out once each month with a tenor of no more than one year.These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkitfollowing its earlier introductions of temporary repos, temporaryreverse repos, and the buying and selling of treasury bonds. (Source:Xinhua) 2. China has rolled out an action plan to stabilize growth in theelectronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 to 2026.From 2025 to 2026, the average growth rate of added value in thecomputer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturingindustries is expected to be around 7 percent, according to the actionplan released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,and the State Administration for Market Regulation. When including related sectors such as lithium batteries,photovoltaics, and component manufacturing, the average annual revenuegrowth rate of the electronic information manufacturing in