中国人工智能：寒武纪需求上升与供应改善

China AI: Higher demand & improved supply for Cambricon Cambricon’s share price surged by 20% today, largely fueled by recent news thatChinese authorities urging local companies to avoid using Nvidia's H20 AI chip, andincreasing market expectations for strengthened advanced logic supply from localfoundry. The anticipation of higher revenue for Cambricon is underpinned by strong orderexpectations from local customers, and securing 7nm additional local capacity for AI chipproduction. This momentum is seen as positive not only for Cambricon but also for thebroader China AI ecosystem, including foundries and semiconductor equipment vendors.We rate Hygon, SMIC, NAURA, AMEC, Piotech Outperform, and turn more positiveon the outlook for Cambricon. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Demand for Nvidia's H20 remains robust; however, recent China policy casts ashadow on it and creates a bigger market for local AI chips.As we wrote in our recentAI market sizing analysis, demand for Nvidia H20 remain strong at USD 10bn+ for 2H25.However, recent news indicated that China’s stance on H20 have shifted though PresidentTrump has agreed to open H20 in exchange for part of those sales revenues being paid tothe US government, potentially impacting H20 orders in China, as any restrictions on Nvidiafrom China will force local customers to consider purchasing more from local chip vendors.We believe local buyers would not stop buying H20 as most of the time the governmentguidance is not a mandate, but any investigation into Nvidia would delay shipments andraise demand for local chip vendors such as Cambricon and Hygon during the delay. Advanced logic supply for local AI chip vendor was the bottleneck, but market nowexpects that Cambricon could get more local advanced logic capacity allocation. Since mid-2024 the market has been reacting very positively to Cambricon’s commercialsuccess in local CSP customers, leading to strong 4Q24 and 1Q25 earnings. Furtherupside for the company’s growth relies on securing more advanced logic capacity, andthe market now expects 2kwpm 7nm capacity would be allocated to Cambricon for 2026sales. Each wafer product about 80 gross dies assuming Siyuan 590 die size is about 640mm^2, assuming 25% yield, each wafer could translate to 20 good dies, thus 2kwpmwould translate into 480k chip sales for 2026. With a conservative RMB 60k per chipASP assumption, this will translate into RMB 28.8bn 2026E revenue, considerably higherthan our projection at RMB 11.3bn, and consensus at RMB 8.7bn, which explains why themarket reacted so positively to the expectation of added capacity. Note that we expect local7nm capacity could reach 30kwpm+ by the end of 2025, so the allocation does not seemimpossible. Hygon should benefit as well, but their AI chip is not as popular as Cambricon inthe market, therefore the stock did not move as aggressively. Positive implications extend throughout the supply chain to foundry and WFE vendors.Foundries with advanced logic capability such as SMIC stand to benefit directlyfrom increased local AI chip orders. On the WFE side, NAURA holds a higher share inadvanced logic equipment appears especially well-placed, with additional tailwinds forAMEC and Piotech as well though they are more exposed to NAND. Overall, today’s marketmoves reflect optimism not just for Cambricon/Hygon, but for the broader ecosystemsupporting China’s AI and semiconductor ambitions. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Cambricon (688256 CH): We rate Cambricon Market-Perform with PT CNY 600. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Cambricon Technologies C